2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets: Total Quarterbacks Drafted in the First Round

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The NFL Draft is rapidly approaching. With none of the major four sports available to bet on, the NFL Draft props are due to see some serious, potentially odds-moving action in the coming weeks. Today we will take a look at the total quarterbacks drafted in the first round NFL Draft prop offered by our friends at BetMGM.

Since the turn of the century, there has been only one draft class that has seen more than four quarterbacks drafted in the first round. The 2020 NFL Draft class features four quarterbacks that are considered locks for round one and three more quarterbacks with first-round level talent and/or tape. This prop is listed at 4.5 quarterbacks which makes the under the instant lean.

However, the risk here is that a quarterback-needy team will be willing to pay to move up to the end of the first to secure the ever valuable fifth-year option available exclusively to players drafted in the first round. Let’s take a look at the odds and the candidates and you can view all of our 2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets here.

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2020 NFL Draft – Total Quarterbacks Drafted in the First Round

Over 4.5 (+275)
Under 4.5 (-400)

The Locks

Joe Burrow (QB – LSU)
Joe Burrow to the Cincinnati Bengals has been one of the worst kept secrets of this draft season. With Tua Tagovailoa having injury concerns, and Joe Burrow having a historic season for the LSU Tigers, Burrow seems like a lock to go first overall. If Tua was fully healthy the pick would be up for debate, so no one can blame the Bengals for opting for the safer pick, even if he may have a lower floor. It is possible that Burrow slips to second or third overall if the Bengals eschew the consensus and select Justin Herbert instead, but Burrow is a lock to be drafted within the top five picks. 

Tua Tagovailoa (QB – Alabama)
The most talented quarterback in the 2020 NFL Draft class, the concerns over Tua Tagovailoa’s season-ending injury remains an impediment to him being considered for the first overall pick. He is a lock to be drafted in the first round and is expected to go within the top five, but it is important to note that NFL teams are often more concerned with injury history and medical checks than draft analysts. The fact that individual teams will not be able to get their hands on Tua personally to evaluate his recovery (which has been said to have been remarkably good), could lead to him suffering a mini slip. He will likely be remembered as the best quarterback from this draft class, and should not slip out of the top 10.

Justin Herbert (QB – Oregon)
Prior to the 2019 college season, Justin Herbert was widely expected to be in the 1-2 conversation with Tua Tagovailoa to be the first quarterback drafted in the 2020 NFL Draft. He had a strong 2020 season but did not have the sort of standout campaign to hold off a historic season from the previously lightly regarded Joe Burrow. Herbert may be the top healthy quarterback prospect in this draft class and has all the tools one would want in a first overall pick. He should be selected within the top 10, and there has even been some smoke that the Cincinnati Bengals are debating between him and Burrow. Wherever he ultimately winds up being selected, the one certainty is that he will be selected in round one. 

Jordan Love (QB – Utah State)
A big-armed quarterback who has been compared to Patrick Mahomes throughout the draft process, Jordan Love will be drafted in the first round. He is not as clean of a prospect as the three names listed above, but he has one of the highest ceilings. He is more of an unpolished Deshaun Watson than a Patrick Mahomes, but like Mahomes, he is expected to redshirt his rookie season. Love would be in the top five mix if his 2019 season was as good as his 2018 season, but losing nine offensive starters, and having to learn a new system at the same time helps to put context to what many view as a decline. Love has a wide range of draft outcomes as he could last into the 20s, or could be drafted in the top six. However, he is a virtual lock to be drafted in the first round, even if a team has to trade back into the end of day one to nab him.

The Hopefuls

Jacob Eason (QB – Washington)
Jacobs Eason is a talented pocket passer with starter-level upside. He has enough talent and upside that he would be in the consensus first-round conversation in most other draft classes. If the top four quarterbacks get drafted in the top 10 to 15 picks, quarterbacks like Eason, Jalen Hurts, and Jake Fromm will get consideration in the final third of the first round. Eason shines in a clean pocket but looks more like a late day two or day three prospect when he does not have his feet set. Still, he has a good arm and can make all the throws required of him from an NFL team. He should at least be considered by the quarterback-needy teams picking from 18th overall on. 

Jalen Hurts (QB – Oklahoma)
Jalen Hurts is a talented, but very decisive quarterback. Before transferring to Oklahoma, Jalen Hurts played for SEC powerhouse Alabama. While playing for the Crimson Tide, Hurts was viewed as a backup quarterback at best at the next level. He had a CFL level skill set, but there were serious doubts as to whether or not he would ever be a fit in the NFL. After transferring to Oklahoma he transformed himself into a Heisman finalist (and eventual runner up to Joe Burrow). 

Despite his resounding success after moving from the more talented, and man coverage heavy SEC, Hurts is widely considered more of a day two talent. Similar to Lamar Jackson (despite being quarterbacks who can run, their skill sets are different) a team is going to have to be willing to tailor their offensive scheme to his strengths, which could make him more of a luxury developmental pick to teams than someone they feel is worth the extremely valuable draft capital associated with a first-round pick. His best chance to be drafted in the first round will be if a team who desires the fifth-year option trades back into the first round to select the talented signal-caller. 

Jake Fromm (QB – Georgia)
A talented rhythm passer who spent his college career playing his wares in the tough SEC, Jake Fromm was able to answer the questions about his ability to throw the deep ball this past season. He has borderline first-round talent but does not have a day-one grade due to the other quarterbacks in this particular draft class. He has spot starter upside but could be a reasonably strong starter in certain systems. He is almost a lock to be drafted outside of the first round, but his system fit for the New England Patriots will make him someone to keep an eye on if Jordan Love is already off the board when Bill Belichick and co. are on the board. With that being said, it is more likely that he is selected in the second or third round of the 2020 NFL Draft. 

Conclusion

While there is a slim chance that a fifth quarterback is drafted in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, there is indeed a small probability of a surprise pick happening. This probability, however small, has kept the under 4.5 odds from soaring to the -800 range. -400 implies a 80 percent chance that there will be four or less signal callers to hear their names called on day one. There is some value in the under, especially for those who believe that Jordan Love will not even be drafted in the first round. A solid bet for income bettors, the -400 should not be a number bettors shy away from. The odds here are likely to settle in around at least -600 by the time draft day comes around, so jump on this line as soon as possible. 

As mentioned above, there has been only one instance in the last 19 drafts where more than four quarterbacks were taken in the first round, and that called for then Baltimore Ravens G.M. Ozzie Newsome to trade back into the end of the first round to select Lamar Jackson. The last time five quarterbacks went in round one before that was all the way back in 1999. Whether you opt for a full unit or a partial unit return, this is a draft prop that you will want to give serious consideration to.

The pick: Under 4.5 total quarterbacks drafted in the first round 

Here are all of our 2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets.

Check out our consensus odds for 2020 NFL Draft prop bets >>

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.