2020 NFL Draft Props: Team to Draft Offense or Defense with First Pick
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Draft day is finally here. With the majority of the sports world at a halt, sportsbooks are taking in more than double the action they normally would on 2020 NFL Draft props. There are a ton of prop options to choose from at FanDuel, including props that call for you to predict whether a team will go offense or defense with their first pick of the draft. We’ll take a look at the odds for most of the teams in the NFL. Let’s dig in.
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Arizona Cardinals (Offense -260/Defense +198)
The Arizona Cardinals are a very strong bet to go offense with their first-round pick. They have been heavily linked to an offensive lineman, and it would be a major surprise if they went in any other direction. That said, if they did go a different route, it will likely be to select CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy. There is a small chance that they get enticed by a free-falling defensive stud, which is why the line is lower than most of the other teams with a definitive lean. While offense is the pick, stick to a one-unit play.
The Pick: Offense (-260)
Atlanta Falcons (Offense +280/Defense -400)
The Atlanta Falcons seem almost assured to go defense with their first-round pick. They spent two first-round selections on their offensive line in 2019, so they will likely wait until day two to address the line again. They have been rumored to be interested in trading up, with Jeffrey Okudah or C.J. Henderson being their targets. The probability here is high enough to take the full unit return plunge.
The Pick: Defense (-400)
Baltimore Ravens (Offense +112/Defense -142)
As the odds for this prop suggest, it’s up in the air as to which side of the ball the Baltimore Ravens will target with their first-round pick. They have needs on both the offensive line and at wide receiver, but they may choose to replace their recent losses at edge rusher or linebacker. Going defense in the first round seems like the better bet unless they have an opportunity to draft offensive linemen Austin Jackson or Josh Jones. Netane Muti should also be a consideration if they have a first-round grade on him, but defense is expected to be the pick.
The Pick: Defense (-142)
Check out our consensus odds for 2020 NFL Draft prop bets >>
Buffalo Bills (Offense -102/Defense -124)
The Buffalo Bills were expected to target a wide receiver with their first-round pick, but they instead used it in the trade for Stefon Diggs. What direction they go with their second-round pick is less clear. The smart money is that the Bills are leaning defense in the second due to the values likely to be available on both the defensive line and in the secondary. This wide receiver draft class is deep enough for them to target the wide receiver or tight end position in the third round — or even on day three.
The Pick: Defense (-124)
Carolina Panthers (Offense +280/Defense -400)
The Carolina Panthers should go offensive line with their pick, but due to picking seventh overall, they are likely to be able to land one of the 2020 NFL Draft’s elite defensive prospects just by standing pat. It’s going to be hard for Carolina to pass up on Isaiah Simmons, Derrick Brown, or Jeffrey Okudah if they keep this pick. While defense is the smarter play here, there’s enough of a trade risk to keep this as a one-unit play for a partial-unit return.
The Pick: Defense (-400)
Cleveland Browns (Offense -700/Defense +440)
The Cleveland Browns are almost assured to be going offensive line with the 10th overall pick. They are expected to be out of the range for any of the draft’s elite defensive prospects, which should all but rule them out from going with any other position if they keep their current draft position. Cleveland is a minimal risk to trade down, so keep that in mind before dropping seven units for one.
The Pick: Offense (-700)
Dallas Cowboys (Offense +220/Defense -300)
The Dallas Cowboys have been rumored to be eyeing a first-round wide receiver. That said, it’s just as likely for them to target cornerback, center, of K’Lavon Chaisson if he is still available. Offense is the better value here, as the implied odds suggest just a 30.1 percent chance that the Cowboys go offense. The true percentage is likely closer to 40 to 50 percent. Dallas offers one of the top plus-money wagers on the board at FanDuel, and he is worth a one or two-unit play.
The Pick: Offense (+220)
Denver Broncos (Offense -310/Defense +225)
The Denver Broncos’ biggest need is the cornerback position, but all the tea leaves suggest that Denver is targeting a first-round wide receiver. Things may change if Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, and Henry Ruggs are all off the board by the time Denver picks at 15th overall, but Denver is rumored to be interested in trading up. The -310 is a little steep and implies a 75.6 percent probability that offense is the direction the Broncos choose to go. This number is likely closer to 60 to 65 percent, which would equate to -150 to -186. Defense is worth a partial unit touch if you feel so inclined.
The Pick: Defense +225
Detroit Lions (Offense +350/Defense -550)
The Detroit Lions are going defense with their first pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. Jeffrey Okudah is expected to be their target, but Chase Young would be the pick if he is somehow still available. Isaiah Simmons and Derrick Brown both have an outside chance at being selected if the Lions trade back a couple of spots. While -550 is steep, there is still value in the line at FanDuel. The current odds suggest an 84.6 percent chance that defense is the direction they go with their first-round pick. The true probability is much closer to 95 percent, a number that would equate to -1900. Slam this one if you have the bankroll to suffer the juice and the pending.
The Pick: Defense -550
Green Bay Packers (Offense -280/Defense +205)
The Green Bay Packers could truly go in any direction with their first-round pick. They appear to be set on the edge, but they have needs nearly everywhere else. A wide receiver or an offensive lineman makes the most sense for them, but middle linebacker is also a need after losing Blake Martinez to free agency. They flirted with other top middle linebackers like Corey Littleton in free agency, and they may choose to draft Kenneth Murray or Patrick Queen here if either one is still available. Someone like Zack Baun also makes sense due to his positional versatility. That said, -280 is a little heavy juice wise, as it equates to a 73.7 percent chance that offense will be the pick. This number is likely closer to 65 or 70 percent, a number that gives a semblance of value to bettors wishing to get a taste of the plus money on the defensive side.
The Pick: Defense (+205)
Houston Texans (Offense +112/Defense -142)
The Houston Texans do not own a first-round pick, and they will be picking for the first time at 40th overall. The Texans are expected to target the offensive line, wide receiver, edge rusher, or cornerback with their first selection. Cornerback may make the most sense, but with Bill O’Brien manning the ship, it’s just as likely for them to buck conventional wisdom and address the offensive side of the ball. Offense at +112 offers more value, but defense at -142 has low enough juice and the slightly higher win probability to make it the recommended play.
The Pick: Defense (-142)
Here are all of our 2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets >>
Indianapolis Colts (Offense -154/Defense +120)
The Indianapolis Colts should fortify their offensive line with their second-round pick. They addressed their hole on their defensive line by trading their first-round pick for DeForest Buckner, and they would do well to address the right side of an offensive line that’s going to need to be strong for Philip Rivers to have success this season. Odds of -154 imply a 60.6 percent chance that the Colts go offense, a number that seems fair given their recent investments in the secondary and defensive line.
The Pick: Offense (-154)
Jacksonville Jaguars (Offense +134/Defense -172)
Derrick Brown or Javon Kinlaw are expected to be the pick here. If they did choose to go another route, cornerback would be the most likely scenario. Of course, if Jeffrey Okudah is still available, he’ll be the pick over Brown and Kinlaw. However, we cannot rule out the Jaguars being high enough on C.J. Henderson to make a slight reach for him at ninth overall. What prevents this from being a slam play is the fact that the Jaguars will undoubtedly be tempted by the offensive linemen left on the board. Defense is the smarter play here, but the suggestion is to keep it to a one-unit play due to the chance they take an offensive lineman.
The Pick: Defense (-172)
Kansas City Chiefs (Offense +134/Defense -172)
Let’s go offense. Defense makes more sense for the Chiefs as a whole, but if Kansas City is able to trade up, it will be for Henry Ruggs. The Chiefs have been rumored to be in the market to trade up for Ruggs, but may find doing so cost-prohibitive. A more likely scenario is the Chiefs considering Jalen Reagor if he’s still available at 32nd overall. All in all, this is a prop to avoid — but if you need a taste, take a swing on offense at plus money.
The Pick: Offense (+134)
Las Vegas Raiders (Offense -215/Defense +164)
The Las Vegas Raiders are expected to go wide receiver or a quarterback with their first pick of round one. Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb are expected to be their targets, but Jordan Love, and possibly Justin Herbert (if he slips) will also be considered here. There is indeed a risk of an elite defensive player slipping, which could cause Oakland to change their plans, but offense is appropriately the betting favorite. Odds of -215 imply a 68.3 percent chance that offense is the pick. This number is just about right, and it offers a modicum of value up until -233.
The Pick: Offense (-215)
Los Angeles Chargers (Offense -650/Defense +400)
This is the easiest prop to predict on the board, but it comes with much better odds than other props with comparable probabilities. Los Angeles is widely expected to draft a quarterback with their first-round pick. On the odd chance that they do not select a signal-caller, this pick will in all likelihood be an offensive lineman. Odds of -650 equate to an 86.7 implied probability of clicking. The percentage is likely closer to 90 percent, meaning that there is value on offense up to -900.
The Pick: Offense (-650)
Los Angeles Rams (Offense -102/Defense -124)
The Los Angeles Rams’ first pick will not come until day two at 52 overall. The Rams have a host of needs, making it difficult to predict which direction they go here. Offense makes some sense for a team that traded both Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks, but there will be some talented defensive players still left on the board that may prove too tempting to pass up. This is a prop to skip unless you just have to have a taste. In that case, going with offense provides slightly better value due to their increased needs on that side of the ball.
The Pick: Offense (-102)
Miami Dolphins (Offense -1000/Defense +580)
The odds here make this a tough prop to place action on absent a massive bankroll. Miami going offense is as sure as any free pick gets. While the Dolphins may shock the world and draft Andrew Thomas at fifth overall, there is just a one percent chance that the Dolphins go with a position other than quarterback or left tackle.
The Pick: Offense (-1000)
Minnesota Vikings (Offense +130/Defense -166)
The Minnesota Vikings have two first-round picks, and as such, they’ll likely land the best player available at 22nd overall before addressing a need at 25. The likely mix is going to be offensive line, cornerback, and/or wide receiver, but which two they target in round one is still up for debate. This is a prop to avoid if possible. There is not enough value present to burn some of your bankroll to keep this one pending. There are many better options to explore, but if you have to choose, go with defense.
The Pick: Defense (-166)
New England Patriots (Offense -112/Defense -112)
Which direction the New England Patriots choose to go with their first-round pick is anyone’s guess. The current odds reflect this uncertainty with the odds sitting at -112 on both sides. New England has had only three first-round picks since 2015 (in 2018 and 2019), and they spent all three on the offensive side of the ball. While offense is the play if you want some New England action, there are much better values on the board.
The Pick: Offense (-112)
New Orleans Saints (Offense +114/Defense -146)
The New Orleans Saints were expected to go wide receiver with their first-round pick, but with Emmanuel Sanders joining the team in free agency, which direction they choose to go is up in the air. Defense makes the most sense as some of the draft’s top talents at defensive tackle and middle linebacker are expected to still be on the board. Take defense if you are looking for some action on the Saints.
The Pick: Defense -146
New York Giants (Offense -380/Defense +270)
The New York Giants are expected to target the offensive line with this pick by many draft analysts, but the 79.2 percent implied probability attached to odds of -380 is a little too aggressive. There’s likely about a 60 percent chance that the Giants go offense. There is a scenario where Chase Young drops to them, and the Giants will also have to be willing to pass up the other elite defensive names in this class if he is off the board. The line of +270 is an overwhelming value, so keep it to a one-unit play.
The Pick: Defense (+270)
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New York Jets (Offense -600/Defense +370)
The New York Jets are expected to go offensive line with their first-round pick. If they do choose to go in another direction, it will likely be a wide receiver. Their perceived priorities with their first-round pick put offense at a -600 favorite, but there is enough of a trade down risk to avoid this prop. The Atlanta Falcons are interested in moving up, and they’ll likely want to move ahead of Las Vegas at 12th overall to ensure they land C.J. Henderson. Landing Jeffrey Okudah seems like a pipe dream barring a precipitous fall, making the Jets the most likely trade partner for the Falcons. If the Jets choose to trade down to 14th overall, Henry Ruggs and both edge rusher and cornerback prospects become possible selections if the top offensive linemen are off the board. Offense is the more likely scenario, but the suggestion here is to lay a partial unit for a full unit return.
The Pick: Defense (+370)
Philadelphia Eagles (Offense -235/Defense +180)
The Philadelphia Eagles need help at both wide receiver and cornerback. Despite what some mock drafts say, it would be a surprise if the Eagles went with a first-round wideout in such a deep draft at the position. Yes, Jalen Reagor or Justin Jefferson would be great additions, but adding a first-round corner before adding a day two receiver would be more conducive to the Eagles turning a corner on both sides of the ball. While you can still often find top corners in the top half of the second round, there will be starting-level receivers available until at least the fifth round. Take the plus money on defense, but keep it to a partial-unit wager for a full-unit return.
The Pick: Defense (+180)
Pittsburgh Steelers (Offense -126/Defense -102)
The Pittsburgh Steelers do not own a first-round pick due to the Minkah Fitzpatrick deal, so they will have to wait until 49th overall to make their first selection. Their top needs are at running back, cornerback, and outside linebacker. Running back makes sense here, but there may be more value at corner or edge rusher. This is a prop to avoid if possible, but defense appears to the smarter play if you want action on the Steelers.
The Pick: Defense (-102)
San Francisco 49ers (Offense -220/Defense +170)
The San Francisco 49ers are expected to target a wide receiver with their first-round pick. That said, if Derrick Brown or Javon Kinlaw drop, the 49ers may scrap that plan, trade down from 31st overall, and look to address wide receiver on day two. Offense is still the more likely result as both defensive linemen are expected to be taken, and Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, and Henry Ruggs will all likely have to be off the board for the 49ers to target another position.
The Pick: Offense (-220)
Seattle Seahawks (Offense +130/Defense -166)
L.J. Collier and Rashaad Penny. If there is any team likely to bewilder with their first-round pick, it’s the Seattle Seahawks. They have made first-round picks that make no sense for two years running, and they are likely to do so once again. Cornerback and edge rusher make the most sense, which means Seattle will likely go safety or wide receiver. Avoid this prop at all costs. If having some Seahawks action is a must, go defense.
The Pick: Defense (-166)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Offense -380/Defense +270)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are expected to target an offensive lineman here, but they may end up missing out on all of the draft’s top prospects. Tristan Wirfs has shaky enough tape to drop, but some teams are projected to have him as their number one offensive line prospect. If the Bucs fail to land Wirfs, Andrew Thomas, Mekhi Becton, or Jedrick Wills, then they could very well look to cornerback instead. Offense is the more likely result, but defense presents slightly better value as a partial-unit play.
The Pick: Defense (+270)
Tennessee Titans (Offense +120/Defense -152)
After losing Jack Conklin in free agency, it’s a surprise that offense is not the favorite here. This is likely because tier one and tier two of the offensive linemen are all projected to be off the board by the time the Titans pick. If that is indeed the case, then defensive line, cornerback, or linebacker become their most likely options. Take defense at -152.
The Pick: Defense (-152)
Washington (Offense +350/Defense -550)
Washington is going to go with Chase Young with their first-round pick. They have had discussions about moving down, but as expected, their asking price was likely too high for other teams to bite. This is especially true when their fondness for Young is taken into account. Teams can simply opt to deal with Detroit at a more reasonable price at third overall and be confident that the player they are targeting will still be on the board. Defense is the play despite the high -550 juice.
The Pick: Defense (-550)
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.