2022 NFL Draft: Matthew Freedman’s Five Best Bets
It’s the week of the NFL draft, and I just recorded a podcast (on Monday evening) with Fantasy Life CEO Eliot Crist, who is one of the best NFL draft prop bettors I know.
On this podcast, Eliot and I each highlight our five favorite draft prop bets, and I list mine here in this article.
Matthew Freedman’s 2022 NFL Draft Prop Bet Card >>
Mock Drafts
- Version 1: Post-free agency
- Version 2: Post-Eagles & Saints trade
- Version 3: Mid-April
- Version 4: 10 days away
- Version 5: One week away
- Version 6: Week of the draft
I also have a full three-round edition of my most recent mock as well as prospect rankings for my top 100.
Over the past three years, I’m the No. 3 mocker in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest.
To see all the bets I’ve made, check out my NFL Draft prop card.
You can see the current odds for all the draft props in the market on our BettingPros odds page.
As I make more bets, I will post them first in our FREE BettingPros Discord and then write up my bets for publication via article. To get my draft bets as quickly as possible, join our Discord.
Connect with sportsbooks to automatically sync your balances and bets >>
Historically, I’ve done well betting on the draft.
- 2019: 54-29 (+17.7 units)
- 2020: 124-88 (+26.2 units)
- 2021: 158-140 (+32.0 units)
All odds are from the following sportsbooks.
2022 NFL Draft: Five Best Bets
Tyler Linderbaum: Over 27.5
- Line: -105
- Sportsbook: FOXBet
- Date: April 26
- Units: 1.05
- Notes: Linderbaum is one of the best overall players in this class, but interior lineman are devalued in today’s game, and there are few teams that actually need a center in the top 27. Linderbaum might fall out of Round 1 entirely, and within the top 32 the Bengals are his most popular landing spot at No. 31. He goes over 27.5 in 88% of the sharp mocks I’ve surveyed and indexed.
Skyy Moore: Over 35.5
- Line: -114
- Sportsbook: DraftKings
- Date: April 26
- Units: 1.14
- Notes: I love Moore, but his Grinding the Mocks expected draft position (46.2) and NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board rank (49) compel me to bet the over.
Quay Walker: Over 38.5
- Line: +100
- Sportsbook: Caesars
- Date: April 26
- Units: 1
- Notes: Off-ball linebacker isn’t a priority for most teams picking in the top eight of Round 2, and Walker is No. 41 in my most recent mock draft, 42.6 in Grinding the Mocks expected draft position, 52 on Arif Hasan’s consensus big board and 56 on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board.
John Metchie: Over 56.5
- Line: +110
- Sportsbook: Caesars
- Date: April 26
- Units: 1
- Notes: Metchie has a 63.0 expected draft position at Grinding the Mocks, and I have him going at No. 74 to the Falcons in my most recent mock.
Kenny Pickett: Over 12.5
- Line: -125
- Sportsbook: FOXBet
- Date: Apr. 19
- Units: 1.25
- Notes: Increasingly, I believe the Panthers will go with a veteran quarterback (Sam Darnold or maybe Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo after a trade), which means there may be no primary landing spot for a passer in the top 12. On top of that, even if the Panthers do take a quarterback he might be Malik Willis instead of Pickett, who is over 12.5 in 76% of sharp mocks.
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