2022 Wimbledon: Rafael Nadal Betting Odds, Preview & Prediction
Rafael Nadal is halfway to the calendar Grand Slam after winning the first two of the season, the Australian Open and French Open. However, considering just two men have ever won the calendar Grand Slam (Don Budge in 1938 and Rod Laver in 1962 and 1969), the odds are stacked against him, making things feel wide open entering Wimbledon.
Perhaps things are not that wide open, considering Novak Djokovic has won each of the last three Wimbledon titles. Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Andy Murray have combined to win the previous ten Wimbledon titles. However, Federer will not play the tournament for the first time in more than two decades, and Murray is a shell of himself from the 2013 and 2016 titles now at age 35.
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In addition to Federer’s profound absence, Wimbledon will also be played without world No. 1 Daniil Medvedev or Andrey Rublev on the Men’s side, as Wimbledon has banned all players from Russia and Belarus due to the ongoing war in the Ukraine. Lastly, world No. 2 Alexander Zverev’s absence will be felt, as he remains sidelined after undergoing surgery for an ankle injury he suffered at the French Open. As a result, this is the first time since the ATP started ranking players that the top two players would miss Wimbledon.
This is the first annual BettingPros Guide to Wimbledon, where we will highlight several of the top contenders from both the Men’s and Women’s Draws.
Without the world’s top two ranked players, is Djokovic a shoo-in for his fourth consecutive and seventh career Wimbledon title? Will Nadal keep his quest for the calendar Grand Slam alive? What longer shot is best positioned to make a run and claim their first Wimbledon championship?
Read on for our thoughts and predictions for Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon 2022.
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Rafael Nadal Stats to Know
- Odds to Win: +650 (DraftKings)
- World Ranking: 4
- Best Wimbledon Finish: Won in 2008, 2010
- Last 4 Wimbledon Finishes: SF, SF, 4R, 2R
- Last 4 tournament finishes: W (French Open), R16 (ATP Masters 1000 Rome), QF (ATP Masters 1000 Madrid), F (ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells)
Rafael Nadal Wimbledon History
Nadal’s drought at Wimbledon (he has not won since 2010) is by far his longest at any Grand Slam, as he has won all others within the last three years. The Spaniard is 53-12 in his career at Wimbledon, and his 82% career winning percentage on the grass at the All England Club is his worst at any Grand Slam event. In addition, Nadal has missed two of the last five Wimbledons (has not played at Wimbledon since 2019, lost in the semifinals to Federer), and has not even appeared in a Wimbledon final since 2011.
Rafael Nadal Recent Form
Nadal once again proved why he is the King of Clay, winning his 14th career French Open title in his last tournament and running his career record at Roland Garros to 112-3. However, much of the chatter surrounding Nadal entering the third Grand Slam of the season has been about his health.
Nadal gutted through a foot injury in claiming the French Open title three weeks ago but continued to receive medical treatment the last few weeks. About his foot injury, Nadal said on June 17th, “I’m happy. I haven’t limped for a week and the evolution of training is progressing. From day to day the pain has been different and that’s progress. I have to wait a little. My intention is to try and play Wimbledon and this week has told me there is a chance.†Nadal also revealed he and his wife are expecting a child but that the news would not affect his preparation for Wimbledon. However, amid all this news, Nadal has dropped to the third-biggest favorite behind Djokovic and Mateo Berrettini.
Rafael Nadal Wimbledon Predictions
The Pick: Nadal/Djokovic to Win vs. the Field (-180 on FanDuel), Pass on +120 To Win the Quarter
We are backing FanDuel’s prop bet for either Nadal or Djokovic to win Wimbledon over the field, not because we believe in Nadal’s chances, but as a hedge as we think Djokovic is destined for his seventh title.
Nadal overcame injury concerns heading into the French Open, but those concerns appear more worrisome entering Wimbledon, and grass is not even his best surface. In addition, the Spaniard has some tricky opponents in his quarter, starting with a potential second-round match against Sam Querrey, who has used his massive serve to pull upsets over Djokovic and Murray in back-to-back years in 2016 and 2017 at Wimbledon.
Nadal also could face Marin Cilic in the fourth round, and Cilic is coming off the momentum of a semifinal appearance at Roland Garros. And should Nadal get past that round, Felix Auger-Aliassime could await in the quarterfinals, and Aliassime was one set away from handing Nadal just his fourth-ever loss on clay at the French Open. That is too tricky of a path to warrant a play on Nadal’s +120 odds to win the quarter. However, to have something invested in him, we will pair his odds to win with Djokovic’s to be safe.
Wimbledon 2022 Betting Odds, Preview & Predictions
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.