2023 Australian Open Men’s Preview and Picks
History was made in the Men’s Draw of last year’s Australian Open. Rafael Nadal beat Daniil Medvedev for his 21st Grand Slam title, breaking a tie with Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. Nadal now has 22 major titles (after winning the French Open) to Djokovic’s 21. Still, the Serbian is looking to extend his record to ten Australian Open titles (no other player has more than six). Djokovic was not eligible to participate in last year’s event, as he was deported from the country after not receiving the COVID-19 vaccine.
The odds leaderboard for the tournament was shaken up considerably when world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz withdrew with a leg injury. Alcaraz won five singles titles in 2022 and finished the year 57-13, and his absence made Rafael Nadal the No. 1 seed.
Nadal and Djokovic won three of the four Grand Slams and 15 of the last 19 dating back to 2018. Is this tournament theirs to win again, or will one of the tour’s other players break through?
Read on for our thoughts and predictions for the 2023 Men’s Australian Open.
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2023 Men’s Australian Open Betting Preview, Predictions, and Top Pick
(odds via DraftKings)
Outright Betting Pick: Novak Djokovic (-110)
Novak Djokovic Stats to Know
- Odds to Win: -110 (DraftKings)
- World Ranking: 5
- Best Australian Open Finish: Nine-time winner
- Last 4 Australian Open Finishes: A, W, W, W
- Last 4 tournament finishes: W (Adelaide), W (Nitto ATP Finals), F (ATP Masters 1000 Paris), W (Astana)
Novak Djokovic Recent Form
It is hard to argue with Djokovic’s recent form, as he has won five of his last six tournaments. Djokovic’s fitness is never in question and is something that gives him an edge, particularly at the Australian Open. The Australian Open is the first Grand Slam of the season and is usually played in extreme heat, which favors fit players who have played enough tennis leading up to the tournament.
Novak Djokovic Australian Open Predictions
The Pick: Djokovic to Win (-110 on DraftKings)
Djokovic has Andrey Rublev, Holger Rune, Pablo Carreno Busta, Nick Kyrgios, Alex de Minaur, Dan Evans, and Grigor Dimitrov in his quarter. A potential Round-of-16 matchup with countryman de Minaur could be tricky since the crowd would be against him heavily. However, Djokovic is motivated by last year’s ban and likely would love nothing more than to beat an Aussie on the way to the quarterfinals and beyond. The fact that Djokovic is -280 to win this quarter while no other player has better than +100 to win theirs tells you all you need to know about how big a favorite he is.
Other Australian Open Predictions
Daniil Medvedev to Win (+550)
DraftKings has an interesting prop bet on if there will be a first-time winner, with the “Yes†at +150 odds and the “No†at -200. Betting the “Yes†eliminates Djokovic, Nadal, and Stan Wawrinka as options. However, instead of opting for the +150 odds as a hedge against a Djokovic bet, Medvedev’s +550 odds to win outright are enticing. He has made the finals in his previous two Australian Open appearances. If he can navigate a quarter that includes Nadal and Sebastian Korda, he would likely be a big favorite in his semifinal match.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01