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2023 Australian Open Women’s Preview and Picks

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On the Men’s side of the Australian Open, Novak Djokovic aims for his record tenth title and is a heavy favorite as a result. However, in the Women’s Draw, four of the last five winners will not have a chance for repeat success this season. Caroline Wozniacki (2018 winner) and Ashleigh Barty (2022 winner) have both retired, and two-time winner Naomi Osaka (2019, 2021) announced she would miss at least this whole calendar year because of pregnancy. That leaves Sofia Kenin as the lone winner from the previous five years in this draw. Still, she is considered an afterthought with +20000 odds, especially with having to face two-time winner (2012, 2013) Victoria Azarenka in the first round.

Iga Swiatek is one of two women (Aryna Sabalenka the other) with shorter than +1000 odds to win the first Grand Slam of the season. Swiatek won two of the four majors last year (French Open and US Open). However, there has been a lot of parity in women’s tennis, as six different women have won the previous eight Grand Slams. Thus, bettors stand to profit handsomely if they can identify the correct picks and sleepers to advance through the tournament.

Read on for our thoughts and predictions for the 2023 Women’s Australian Open.

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2023 Women’s Australian Open Betting Preview, Predictions, and Top Pick

(odds via DraftKings)

Outright Betting Pick: Jessica Pegula (+1200)

Jessica Pegula Stats to Know

  • Odds to Win: +1200 (DraftKings)
  • World Ranking: 3
  • Best Australian Open Finish: Second round
  • Last 4 Australian Open Finishes: QF, QF, 1R, A
  • Last 4 tournament finishes: W (United Cup), W (Guadalajara), SF (San Diego), QF (US Open) 

Jessica Pegula Recent Form

Pegula has skyrocketed up the WTA rankings after securing her most prestigious singles title with her win at Guadalajara. At that tournament, she beat previous Grand Slam winners in four consecutive matches (Victoria Azarenka, Sloane Stephens, Bianca Andreescu, and Elena Rybakina) before an easy straight-set victory over Maria Sakkari in the final. However, her biggest individual win came in the semifinals of the United Cup, as she beat world No. 1 Iga Swiatek, whom she lost to in the two tournaments leading up to Guadalajara.

Jessica Pegula Australian Open Predictions

The Pick: Pegula to Win (+1200 on DraftKings)

Pegula has made back-to-back quarterfinal appearances at the Australian Open. She enters playing the best tennis of her career, which suggests she is due for at least a breakthrough to the semifinals. Pegula has to navigate a draw that features Sakkari, Madison Keys, and Petra Kvitova. Kvitova handed Pegula her only loss in five United Cup matches. However, given that Pegula won seven of her other eight sets in that tournament by a score of 6-3 or better, we prefer to think of that loss to Kvitova as a one-off. Swiatek (+225) and Cori Gauff (+1600) are also worth a look, but they were placed in the same quarter, and it is too risky of a play to back either pre-tournament with a possible quarterfinal heads-up match looming. In addition, Swiatek withdrew from the Adelaide tournament with a shoulder injury, which is a concern heading into this major.

Other Australian Open Predictions

Ons Jabeur to win the quarter (+330)

Jabeur is in the same quarter as Aryna Sabalenka, who has the second-best pre-tournament odds after her win in Adelaide. Jabeur knows how to raise her game on the biggest stages, making the finals in her previous two Grand Slams. While Sabalenka could be a tricky quarterfinal opponent, the Belarusian has yet to make it past the fourth round at the Australian Open and has been plagued by service issues in the past. Sabalenka has won three of the four head-to-head meetings between them (including the two on hard court), but Jabeur’s craftiness and big match experience would give her the edge.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01