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2023 MLB All-Star Game Odds, Picks & Predictions (7/11)

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Baseball’s best convene for two days of festivities that culminates in the Major League Baseball All-Star Game, otherwise known as the “Midsummer Classic.” The American League has dominated the All-Star Game for the last quarter of a century, going 21-3-1 in the previous 25, including nine consecutive victories. While home-field advantage in the World Series is no longer awarded to the All-Star Game winner, the National League will clearly be motivated to end that streak. However, a different All-Star Game trend catches our eye, so read on for our best bet and who we are taking as a flier to win All-Star Game MVP.

MLB All-Star Game Odd, Picks & Predictions

Details

  • Opening Lines: DraftKings had the odds open at American League -125, National League -105; O/U 7.5
  • Location: T-Mobile Park; Seattle, WA
  • Start Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Television: FOX
  • Last Meeting: American League defeated the National League 3-2 in the 2022 MLB All-Star Game at Dodger Stadium

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

MLB All-Star Game Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-110)

Last year’s two starting pitchers, Shane McClanahan and Clayton Kershaw, will not be available to throw in the All-Star Game as they are both currently on the IL. In addition, others like Shohei Ohtani (blister), Emmanuel Clase, Spencer Strider, Marcus Stroman, and Bryce Elder are unavailable either because they have pitched too recently or declined to participate altogether. However, most of those pitchers are starters, which means a majority of the innings will be thrown by relievers who are more used to coming out of the bullpen.

Regardless of what pitchers are available, hurlers have had the advantage at the All-Star Game for nearly two decades, as the Under has cashed in 13 of the last 16 Midsummer Classics. An average of 6.75 runs have been scored in that span, and the last time a nine-inning All-Star Game had double-digit runs scored was back in 2005. It has also been especially difficult to score runs early, and last year’s All-Star Game broke a four-year streak of no runs being scored in the first inning.

The game’s format makes it difficult for batters to find a rhythm; most will get up to two plate appearances, and upwards of 20 pitchers will be used on both sides. This year’s venue also does not help offenses, as Baseball Savant Park Factors label T-Mobile Park the lowest of all 31 MLB stadiums (which includes London Stadium) in terms of runs scored, wOBACon, and OBP. Throw in the cool temperatures (low of 55 degrees in Seattle on Tuesday night) and the fact that two of the sport’s biggest stars, Aaron Judge and Mike Trout (four of the last nine AL MVPs), are not participating due to injury, and this has all the makings of another low-scoring affair.

Nolan Arenado to win All-Star Game MVP

Five of the last eight All-Star Game MVPs have been starters, which makes sense considering they usually get more at-bats. And of the three that were not starters, two were pitchers. Shane Bieber won the MVP in 2019, pitching in front of his fans at Progressive Field. Mariano Rivera essentially won a lifetime achievement MVP while pitching at Citi Field, which was his home city although not his home stadium. So unless one thinks Luis Castillo or George Kirby will dazzle enough to merit consideration for the award, we will focus our attention on a position player.

Nolan Arenado is a veteran in this game, making his seventh All-Star appearance. He finished third in the MVP voting last year with a .293/.358/.533 slash line. His current .285/.331/.521 slash line is not far off from that, and he is red-hot at the moment, with eight hits and seven RBIs in his last 17 at-bats. Cashing this wager would likely mean the National League would have to win this game for the first time in ten tries, but a bet this unique deserves a “Hail Mary” approach. 


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.