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2023 NCAA Tournament: Round 1 Picks & Predictions (Friday)

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The Madness returns Friday for even more jam-packed college basketball action! Before things tip off this afternoon be sure to get all of your betting picks placed. To help, here are our top picks for Friday’s Round 1 action.

Round 1 Picks & Predictions for Friday

Michigan State vs. USC

This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the first round, featuring two teams who struggled to develop and maintain offensive identities throughout the season. Michigan State shoots the 3 ball at the 4th highest percentage in the country and shoots FTs at the 33rd highest percentage, but they rank 290th or below in attempts in both categories. USC is pretty middling across the board offensively, but I do believe that they have a decisive edge on the defensive end (7th in the nation in FG% allowed and 2nd in 2PT FG% allowed). I expect this game to be low scoring and extremely close throughout, with efficient offensive possessions coming at a premium. I lean toward the Spartans to advance in the end, who have multiple dynamic guards in Tyson Walker, AJ Hoggard and Jaden Akins, and survived the gauntlet of a much tougher Big 10 regular season.

Pick: Under 137.5 (-110)

Iowa State vs. Pittsburgh

Iowa State enters the NCAA tournament as one of the most elite defensive teams in college basketball, ranking 9th in Kenpom’s defensive efficiency rating against the number 1 ranked schedule against adjusted offensive efficienciy – pretty impressive. The Cyclones not only defend at a high level, but they limit the possessions of their opponents by ranking in the top 10 in rebounds allowed to opponents and top 20 in steals per game. They will be without one of their top perimeter scorers, Caleb Grill, for the remainder of the year, but a tandem of impressive wins against the offensive juggernaut Baylor down the stretch prove that Iowa State can still hang with the best.

On the other hand, Pittsburgh punched their ticket to the round of 64 by narrowly escaping Dayton with a 60-59 win over a similarly defensive-minded Mississippi State squad. The Panthers relied on their strengths, floor spacing and 3 point shooting, to get past the Bulldogs, and I expect to see a lot of the same in this matchup. Iowa State will have their hands full with this Panthers team that plays a short rotation, but always has 5 guys on the floor that are capable of knocking down shots from anywhere. Iowa State is a step up in class from the Mississippi State team that they just knocked off, but if Pittsburgh can take care of the ball the way they did in Dayton, they will definitely be a tough out. I see this game playing out extremely similar to Pitt’s First 4 matchup, so I will be playing the under.

Pick: Under 130.5 (-110)

Miami vs. Drake

If you’re looking for a potential 5-seed vs. 12-seed upset to pencil into your bracket. This matchup between Miami and Drake could be one to circle. The Hurricanes are a terrifically fun team to watch and captured the ACC regular season crown. But the Bulldogs out of the Missouri Valley are game to pull off an upset, hence why this spread opened at Miami only as 3.5-point favorites. Drake is a top-50 team per BartTorvik and is rated as the 15th-best team in the country over their last 10 games. The Bulldogs are the oldest team in the country and have five seniors that play significant minutes, so they shouldn’t balk under the bright lights of the big dance. Perhaps most importantly is that Drake is capable of shutting down the potent Hurricanes offense. Drake ranks 35th in 3-point defense and 63rd along the interior, which is critical against a ‘Canes offense that’s 42nd and 21st in those respective categories. Drake can also limit Miami’s second chance opportunities, as they rank third in defensive rebounding. Offensively, the Bulldogs are no slouch either. They shoot 36.7% from 3-point range, take care of the ball and can score inside as well. They have the goods against a susceptible Miami defense that ranks 220th in effective field goal percentage and does nothing well defensively besides avoid fouling. This Hurricanes team has been a delight to watch, but Drake is a live underdog.

Drake ML (+110)

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More Round 1 Betting Picks & Predictions

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