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2023 the Memorial Tournament: First-Round Leader Picks & Predictions

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The PGA Tour heads north to Dublin, Ohio this week for one of the most revered stops on tour every year. The “Golden Bear” Jack Nicklaus will host the 47th annual edition of the Memorial Tournament at the famed Muirfield Village Golf Club. The course is the Ohio native’s legacy when it comes to golf course design. The par 72 layout plays to nearly 7,600 yards and forces players to be in fine form from tee to green. Warm, but calm conditions are expected all week which bodes well for some lower scores. I expect to see a number near or at Rory McIlroy’s 63 (-9) in 2014, an all-time tournament low for the first round.

The Memorial is a tournament that is adored by many on tour, so most of the big hitters will be teeing it up this week, with 16 of the top 20 golfers in the OWGR in attendance.  When looking for players to back this week, I’ll be putting heavy emphasis on three key stats. SG (Tee to Green), Scrambling and Putting – Inside 10 feet. Recent form is always a key consideration, as well as course history. While the cream usually rises to the top by Sunday, names at the top of the leaderboard Thursday evening over the past few years have been names such as Lee, Kirk, Kaymer, Cauley, and Lahiri. Backing a lesser-known name with solid recent form and course history may result in a profitable strategy. I certainly won’t dismiss any of those options, but here are the top three options I’ll be backing.

2023 the Memorial Tournament Best First-Round Leader Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Jason Day (35-1)

The Australian, who has been plagued by back issues in recent years, seems to be healthy in 2023. Day has 12 Top 25 finishes in 17 events played this season, good for fifth in the current FedEx Cup rankings. The 35-year-old ranks 2nd on tour in Scrambling, 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 14th in Putting – Inside 10 feet. All key metrics for success at Muirfield Village. He fired an opening round 64 just two weeks ago on his way to claiming the AT&T Byron Nelson title and has carded opening rounds in the 60’s in four of his appearances here in the past. Not only do I like Day to be atop the leaderboard Thursday evening, I like him as one of the favorites to be shaking Jack’s hand as champion Sunday night.

Patrick Cantlay (22-1)

The 2021 FedEx Cup champion loves it here. In six appearances, the California native has won twice (2019, 2021), finished in the top five twice, and no worse than T35. The UCLA product fired a final round 64 four years ago so he’s shown the ability to go very low here. Eight of Cantlay’s last nine starts have produced a top 2o finish so his form is there. He’s ranked 7th on tour in SG: Tee-to-Green and 11th Putting – Inside 10 feet. The only question mark would be his Scrambling (ranked 51st) but I’m willing to look past that based on the course history here. The 11-year tour veteran is playing well and could very easily be atop the leaderboard Thursday evening.

Sahith Theegala (50-1)

Remember when I said backing a lesser-known name for FRL could be a profitable strategy this week? Look no further than one of the 2022 Rookie of the Year finalists. The Pepperdine University product has quickly entrenched himself as a rising star on the PGA Tour. In 19 starts this season, he has made all but one cut and posted seven top-ten finishes. He’s no stranger to Muirfield Village GC. This will be the 25-year-old’s third start here. He has opened with 68 and 69 on his way to a T5 and T32 finish respectively, so while his stats don’t necessarily reflect that type of success overall, you can’t argue with the results. Theegala is someone who is well worth backing.

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