2023 US Open Men’s Semifinal Odds, Picks & Predictions
Three of the four men’s US Open semifinalists are no surprise, as they were the top three favorites entering the tournament. Novak Djokovic continues his quest for his 24th Grand Slam, Carlos Alcaraz looks to become the 58th man in history to win three or more major titles, and Daniil Medvedev looks to double down on his 2021 US Open title. The lone surprise participant in this star-studded final four is American Ben Shelton, who, at 20 years old, became the youngest American man to reach the US Open quarterfinals or beyond in 21 years.
2023 Men’s Wimbledon Semifinal Picks & Predictions
(odds via DraftKings)
Ben Shelton vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction
It is rare to find a player with such steep moneyline odds at the semifinals of a major, so we must dive deep into the other markets, as Djokovic’s -1600 odds to beat Shelton provide no value.
There is no denying Shelton’s ability to rise to the occasion in majors, going 10-3 this year with two quarterfinal appearances or better. However, a player the caliber of Djokovic will not be rattled on the big stage, making Shelton’s poor 7-17 record in all other events this year a concerning number. Shelton did not win more than one match in any ATP event outside of majors, so not even the tremendous support he will get from the American crowd will propel him in this match.
The most surprising thing about Shelton’s win over Frances Tiafoe in the quarterfinals was that he broke serve seven times. And while he has broken serve six or more times in three straight matches, he will not touch Djokovic’s serve in this match, as Djokovic has only been broken seven times all tournament. Djokovic is the best returner in the game, so Shelton’s consistent 120 mph-plus serves will not bother him, and he is a master at using a crowd that is against him for his own motivation.
Shelton’s last nine completed Grand Slam matches have gone four or more sets. Still, Djokovic has made tidy work of every opponent in this semifinal run except for Laslo Djere and should do so again for his 12th consecutive win at a Grand Slam semifinal.
Pick: Djokovic to win in straight sets (-170 on DraftKings)
Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
This Medvedev-Alcaraz match is a meeting of the last two US Open winners and is the second consecutive time the two have met at a major semifinal after Alcaraz beat Medvedev 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 at Wimbledon. However, Medvedev was not in the best form then, going just 2-2 in his grass-court tune-up matches, while hard court has always been his best and most consistent surface.
Coming into this tournament, Medvedev’s 82% winning percentage at the US Open was by far his best at any major, and all four of his Grand Slam finals appearances have come on hard court. He has been in great form on hard courts this year, winning four titles on the surface, and has the length and range most others do not have of tracking down Alcaraz’s shots when he moves his opponents all over the court.
Alcaraz leads the head-to-head matchup 2-1, and surprisingly, all three matches have ended in straight sets, despite two of those coming in best-of-five settings at Wimbledon. Alcaraz bludgeoned Medvedev 6-3, 6-2 at the Indian Wells final on hard court this year, when Medvedev won just 53% of his first serve points and did not get a single look at a break point opportunity against Alcaraz’s serve.
While many will point to Medvedev playing much better entering this match, he had won 19 consecutive matches heading into that final, which highlights how impressive the Spaniard’s dominance was. We have too much respect for Medvedev on hard courts to project this as a straight-set Alcaraz victory, especially since he has not lost in straight sets in 16 consecutive US Open matches. Thus, we expect Medvedev to win one set (he has -190 odds to win at least one set) but prefer the better value with Alcaraz winning in four.
Pick: Alcaraz to win 3 sets to 1 (+260 on DraftKings)
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