2023 US Open Women’s Semifinal Odds, Picks & Predictions
If you are a fan of American tennis, there is plenty to root for heading into the Women's semifinals at the US Open, as Coco Gauff and Madison Keys look to move one step closer to their first Grand Slam finals. While Aryna Sabalenka is the only one of the four remaining participants to ever win a Grand Slam title, all four women have made the finals of a major, so we can expect to see some high level tennis today.
Read on for our thoughts and predictions for the 2023 Women’s US Open semifinals.
2023 Women’s US Open Semifinal Picks & Predictions
(odds via DraftKings)
Coco Gauff vs. Karolina Muchova Prediction
Gauff is sure to be a widely bet favorite in this semifinal match, not only as the fan-favorite American but also because she eviscerated Jelena Ostapenko 6-0, 6-2 in the quarterfinals, winning six of seven break points. In addition, Gauff’s first-round Wimbledon exit seems like a distant memory after winning 10 consecutive matches, which includes titles in Washington, D.C. and Cincinnati. The Cincinnati final was Gauff’s first career meeting with Muchova, and she beat her in straight sets, 6-3, 6-4. However, when considering the circumstances surrounding that match, one should not be quick to think Gauff will win again with such ease.
In Cincinnati, Muchova had spent more than 10 hours on the court leading up to the final, and every one of her earlier round matches against a loaded field went the full three sets. Muchova admitted being tired entering the match and had to adjust her style of play to conserve whatever energy she had and not get caught up in too many long rallies. Now Muchova has a day off after her quarterfinal match, and she has only played one three-set match compared to Gauff’s three that went the distance in this US Open.
Muchova’s quarterfinal victory was equally as impressive as Gauff’s, only losing one more game. She has gotten off to quick starts, winning the first set in this tournament in all five matches and only needing more than nine games twice. While she does not have the best track record as an underdog, failing to cover the game spread in four straight matches in that role at the US Open, she is also no pushover, as each of her previous six WTA semifinals has gone over the projected total.
Muchova hit just four winners compared to 13 unforced errors in the first set of her Cincinnati match against Gauff, but we expect a much more patient approach in this rematch and a willingness to engage in longer rallies. Considering Muchova began the season ranked outside the top 150 and is now a fixture in the top 10, her ascent is too great to ignore, and she will provide a stern test for Gauff.
Pick: Muchova +3.5 games (-110 on DraftKings)
Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka Prediction
Keys entered the tournament with the fourth-best odds to win her quarter (+700), and yours truly pegged her as one of the best value plays to reach the semifinals at those odds. What we did not envision was the ease at which she would reach her third US Open semifinal (also made it in 2017 and 2018), as she has dropped just one set in the third round to Liudmila Samsonova. She has not been pushed past ten games in any other set, but has been able to overpower all her opponents to this point, bludgeoning them with a strong baseline attack, and a precise serve that has been broken just twice all tournament. However, Sabalenka is the first opponent she will face where she will not have that advantage, and that will be too much to overcome.
Sabalenka has lost just 21 games in five matches. She entered the tournament 25-5 on hard courts with two titles this year, and her consistency in Grand Slam matches is too much to ignore, having made the semifinals at each of the previous four majors. She is 22-2 in her last 24 Grand Slam matches, and while she has not covered the spread in her previous six major semifinal matches, we envision her winning this match in straight sets, especially since Keys is slightly overvalued after defeating Marketa Vondrousova, who clearly was not 100% healthy towards the end of the tournament.
Pick: Sabalenka to win 2 sets to 0 (-130 on DraftKings)
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