2023 Wimbledon Men’s Semifinal Picks & Predictions
While the Men’s Draw at Wimbledon had several surprise quarterfinalists in Chris Eubanks and Roman Safiullin, the semifinals are comprised of players that most expected, with the top three seeds and Jannik Sinner advancing. Though not the favorite by seeding, many projected Sinner’s semifinal run, giving him the advantage over Casper Ruud in his quarter.
Friday’s semifinal matches should be entertaining, as Novak Djokovic continues his pursuit of history with a record 24th Grand Slam victory and a calendar Grand Slam after he won the year’s first two Majors. Read on for our thoughts and predictions for the 2023 Men’s Wimbledon semifinals.
2023 Men’s Wimbledon Semifinal Picks & Predictions
(odds via DraftKings)
Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction
Considering that Djokovic was a -160 pre-tournament favorite and has massive -550 moneyline odds to win this matchup, a 34th consecutive Wimbledon victory seems like a formality. Thus, we must get creative with this wager to be lucrative.
Djokovic has dropped a set in his last two matches against Hubert Hurkacz and Andrey Rublev, which should give Sinner a glimmer of hope that he can push Djokovic in this match. And considering that Sinner has won at least one set in each of his last 24 completed Grand Slam main draw matches, Djokovic should not be banking on a straight-set victory. In fact, Djokovic has won four of his previous seven Wimbledon main draw matches in four sets.
Rublev could only take advantage of one of his eight break-point chances against Djokovic, which was regrettable considering Djokovic’s 62% first serve percentage matched his lowest of the tournament. Sinner has been broken six times this tournament, so Djokovic figures to break Sinner’s serve at least a couple of times, opening the door for a quick set or two. If the two feel each other out en route to a first-set tiebreak, we would be interested in backing the Under of games for the second or third set, as one break could lead to a 6-3 set victory. However, too many trends point to more than three sets being played, like the fact that 4+ sets have been played in each of Sinner’s last four Grand Slam main draw matches as an underdog. Thus, betting on Djokovic to win in four sets seems the best way to maximize profits in this matchup.
Pick: Djokovic to win in four sets (+270 on DraftKings)
Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
Daniil Medvedev cashed at +275 odds to win his quarter, but he was not as big a favorite as one would think, considering he went just 2-2 in his grass-court tune-up matches leading up to Wimbledon. Meanwhile, Carlos Alcaraz is looking to make history as the first person to ever win Wimbledon after winning a tournament the week before Wimbledon (Alcaraz won the Queen’s Club title last week). His quarterfinal match against Holger Rune was the first between players 20 or younger in the Open Era.
Medvedev got a break from a rest perspective in his fourth-round match after Jiri Lehecka retired after two sets. However, that advantage was given back after Medvedev was pushed to five sets by Eubanks, even though Medvedev won 17 more points and 26 more receiving points. Meanwhile, the most impressive part of Alcaraz’s semifinal run has been his return of serve. Entering their fourth-round match, Matteo Berrettini had not been broken in his first three matches, but Alcaraz converted four of a whopping 16 break-point chances. And it was not like Berrettini was serving poorly, as he made 71% of his first serves and was averaging a blistering 125 mph on his first serve through three sets.
If Alcaraz were facing a more accomplished player on grass, we would give his opponent more of a puncher’s chance, considering the world No. 1 played just 11 career grass-court matches entering Wimbledon. However, Medvedev had never reached a Wimbledon quarterfinal before this year and has not covered the game spread in his previous five ATP semifinals on grass.
Medvedev is an emotional player who is not immune to the occasional blowup, and one lopsided 6-2 set or worse should open the door for Alcaraz to cover this spread again, just like he did when the two met on hard courts in a straight-set Alcaraz victory at Indian Wells.
Pick: Alcaraz -3.5 games (-130 on DraftKings)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01