2023 Wimbledon Women’s Semifinal Odds & Picks
So much for the “Big Three†dominating Wimbledon on the Women’s side. Only Aryna Sabalenka remains from the top three players in the world, as No. 1 Iga Swiatek and defending champion Elena Rybakina lost their quarterfinal matches. However, two of the other semifinalists have made Grand Slam finals before, as Marketa Vondrousova finished runner-up at the 2019 French Open, and Ons Jabeur is a two-time Major finalist, including reaching the finals at Wimbledon last year.
Read on for our thoughts and predictions for the 2023 Women’s Wimbledon semifinals.
2023 Women’s Wimbledon Semifinal Picks & Predictions
(odds via DraftKings)
Elina Svitolina vs. Marketa Vondrousova Prediction
Elina Svitolina has been a giant slayer so far in this tournament, winning four consecutive matches as underdogs. Though she was one of the most consistent players on tour from 2017-2020 (including making back-to-back Major semifinals in 2019 at Wimbledon and the US Open), she was not given much of a chance pre-tournament being placed in Swiatek’s quarter, and having given birth just six months ago. Fade Svitolina again as an underdog at your own peril, but she is likely still not the favorite in this match, considering she only re-joined the tour a short three months ago.
Conversely, Vondrousova is fortunate to be still playing, considering she was down 1-4 in the third set and faced a break point to go down 1-5 to Jessica Pegula in her quarterfinal match. Her shakiness on serve was also prevalent in her previous match, getting broken four times by Marie Bouzkova. However, her run to the semifinals is undoubtedly impressive, considering she beat Veronika Kudermetova and Donna Vekic to get here after entering Wimbledon with a modest 7-12 record on grass in her career.
The brutal draw of facing Elise Mertens, Sofia Kenin, Victoria Azarenka, and Iga Swiatek will eventually catch up to Svitolina, as will the mental drain of consistently addressing the media about her Ukrainian roots. However, Svitolina does not bow out of matches easily. She has covered the game spread in seven consecutive Grand Slam main draw matches and has gone over the total number of games in three straight WTA semifinals, with each going the distance. So while their last two head-to-head matches have seen just 16 and 15 games played, we expect a three-set grind on Thursday.
Pick: Svitolina-Vondrousova Over 2.5 sets (+115 on DraftKings)
Ons Jabeur vs. Aryna Sabalenka Prediction
Sabalenka comes into this match the fresher of the two players, winning her quarterfinal match 6-2, 6-4 with surprising ease over Madison Keys. She has a lot to play for in this match, as simply reaching the final would assure her of the world No. 1 ranking for the first time in her career. But that sort of tidbit can be equally motivating and debilitating, and we love that Jabeur can draw on experience from last year in this match.
While many players are overwhelmed by Sabalenka’s serve and overall power on her groundstrokes, Jabeur played the perfect opponent in her last match, Elena Rybakina, to prepare for Sabalenka’s style of play. However, Sabalenka did also enter the Keys match ranked in the top five in aces, percentage of first serves won, and service games won, so break point opportunities could be few and far between.
Jabeur has sometimes admitted that her emotions can swing wildly in matches, which often forces her matches against the best opponents to have many peaks and valleys. As such, when Jabeur is at her best, there is arguably no women’s player more confident than her, and her elite slicing and ability to draw Sabalenka to the net are great neutralizers for her power. The best bet here is the Over for number of games Jabeur wins, as winning at least one set (which she has -180 odds to do) should easily cash this Over.
Pick: Jabeur to win Over 11.5 games (-155 on DraftKings)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01