Navigate

2024 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400: NASCAR at Texas Odds, Picks & Predictions

by |

If you’ve followed this series throughout the years, you’ve likely noticed the growth of my overall betting card, including the addition of Xfinity and Truck Series picks. This is because NASCAR betting is a lot like a fire hydrant. Once you turn that valve, it flows – fast.

Instead of waiting for an all-or-nothing Cup Series race, I’ve come to casually invest in the lower series and catch an early weekend sweat. Lately, I’ve been even more profitable in the Xfinity Series than Cup. As for the Truck Series? Not so much; I’m definitely still adjusting to the learning curve there.

Regardless, NASCAR has seen a huge influx of young talent. From legacy drivers to sim-racers-turned-pro and the next generation of women drivers, watching them on their rise through the ranks is what it’s all about.

Both the young talent and wily veterans will take to the track this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway, the second true intermediate of the season. The 1.5-mile tracks are usually the bread and butter of the NASCAR betting industry. However, Texas has been a bit of a wildcard the past two seasons, with tire issues and sizeable wrecks by the boatload. All three series have also only been here once per season for a points-paying race in the Next Gen era, and that was in the playoffs and fall time. Altogether, this is one of the more difficult handicaps of the season.

Still, the books seem to be thrown for a loop as much as the gambler this week; there is plenty of value across the board. Let’s break it down with my pre-practice and qualifying card for the poorly named Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400.

2024 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400: NASCAR at Texas Odds, Picks & Predictions

Top 5: Bubba Wallace (+245 via BetRivers) | .4u

It’s been a season of mixed results for the No. 23 team. They’ve had serious speed and three T5s in five races to show for it. However, if it weren’t for some pit-road mishaps and late-race wrecks, Wallace could have a half dozen T5s. Alas, things course-corrected last week, and they finished fourth at Martinsville. Momentum is back in the 23XI Racing team’s favor as it heads to arguably one of its best shots to win this season.

Texas was Wallace’s race to lose last year. The 30-year-old put it on the pole and was No. 1 in average position (4.2), percent of laps led (41.6%) and driver rating (128.8). William Byron, as always, played spoiler, but Wallace drove the best overall race. He thrives on intermediates overall now, scoring five T5s in 10 races and ranking ninth in ifantasyrace.com‘s total speed rankings at them last season.

It’s a longer T5 than I usually invest in, but I don’t think it should be. With value across the board for Wallace, I’m laddering this prop with the T10 and outright.

Top 10: Ross Chastain (-115 via Caesars) | 1.5u

My most confident play of the week, indicated by the 1.5u wager, is Ross Chastain to score a T10. “The Melon Man” unloaded a hotrod at Texas last year. He battled adversity on pit stops and penalties but kept making his way through the field, ultimately finishing second. It was a similar story at Las Vegas, when Chastain went a lap down. He eventually got the free pass, stayed out on old tires and finished fourth.

In the 10 races at Texas and comparable tracks last season, Chastain finished T5 half the time, including a win at Nashville.

Truthfully, I haven’t invested much in Chastain outside of Las Vegas and Daytona this season. But he’s the most disrespected driver across betting markets right now. I’m not alone on this discovery; the betting public continues to bet down his outright and prop odds. Run, don’t walk to get in on the No. 1 car.

Top 10: Corey Lajoie (+1200 via Caesars) | .5u

If Texas goes anywhere like it has the past two years, this could become a war of attrition. That’s why getting invested with a longshot T10 is not a bad idea. Corey LaJoie is mine, listed at 12-1 on Caesars but as low as 4.5-1 at other shops.

The North Carolina native had speed at Las Vegas – our only comp track of the season – finishing Stage 1 in seventh. His finishes at Texas, specifically since he joined Spire Motorsports, are P26, P14, P4, P20 and P10. That means LaJoie has cashed this 40% of the time, well above his 7.7% implied odds at this number. I’ll take a nibble.

Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:

Andy’s Frozen Custard (Xfinity Series) Bets:

SpeedyCash.com 500 (Truck Series) Bets:

Tail Seth’s Plays on the BP App @Between_SethFF

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.