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2024 EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix: NASCAR at COTA Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Some things go over your head when you’re knee-high. The fact that racing is unpredictable was not one of them for me.

I’d spend weekends watching my stepdad trying to wheel his No. 0 car to victory lane at our local dirt track. He won… a lot. And while my memory has all but forgotten the nights he didn’t, there were still plenty of them. It was rarely ever a mechanical issue; Theses are the gearhead Gausmans we’re talking about. Still, beating and banging with your rivals often ends with someone spun out & “p*ssed off,” ready to fight by the haulers afterward.

I try to remember those days of grassroots racing when things don’t break my way when NASCAR gambling.

Whether it be holding the wrong ticket on a three-wide Atlanta finish or an insane amount of tire wear at Bristol that not even Goodyear saw coming, this Cup Series season has been anything but expected.

Thankfully for us, stock car racing’s best head south this week – 15 miles outside of Austin – to do battle at Circuit of the Americas (COTA). After hitting back-to-back outrights in consecutive years and taking down my first major DFS tournament here, it’s safe to say that COTA is my favorite track for both NASCAR betting and fantasy purposes. Unless “SVGesus” blows things up, we’re on a one-way path to profit.

Here’s the data I considered for this week’s EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix:

  • 2023 COTA (Finishes, total speed rankings* & loop data*)
  • 2022 COTA (Finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • 2023 & 2022 Road Courses (Finishes & total speed rankings*)

*via ifantasyrace.com

It’s a full weekend of racing ahead, with the Truck and Xfinity Series firing up on Saturday. While the rest of the sports world is glued to March Madness, my mind will be on the real salt-of-the-earth type of shit that is racing. As unpredictable as it may be, there is simply nothing like it.

This is what we’re down on for COTA:

2024 EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix: NASCAR at COTA Odds, Picks & Predictions

Top 3: Tyler Reddick (+150 via FanDuel Sportsbook) | 1.5u

The No. 45 car was the class of the field at COTA last year, winning despite a poor pit strategy that caused him to make an extra stop. Coming in, the team has looked even faster at the intermediate and short tracks this season; Tyler Reddick will have speed.

Admittedly, I don’t bet the Corning, Calif. driver much. But I’m all in when I do. Over the last two seasons, he has slowly become the best road racer, confirmed by his No. 1 spot in the road course Next-Gen total speed rankings.

I’m also on the 5-1 outright, although that number has gotten bet down to 4-1 at most shops. I’d wait until after qualifying to see if someone has surprising speed to knock Reddick off his spot and maybe back closer to his opening line. Either way, hit that and this T3 line available at FanDuel Sportsbook for insurance.

Top 10: Alex Bowman (+125 via BetRivers Sportsbook) | 1.5u

Ahh, we’re back to betting Alex Bowman T10s. All is right in the world. The 10-year Cup Series veteran is usually more of a top-15 road racer. However, for whatever reason, he is as good as they get at COTA. Bowman joins Reddick and Ross Chastain as the only driver with three T10s here, finishing eight in 2021, second in 2022 and third in 2023.

Bowman is No. 4 in the COTA Next-Gen total speed rankings, and last year specifically, was third in driver rating (108.4) and percentage of laps ran inside the top 15 (89.3%). Bowman’s chances of finishing T10 feel much better than his 44.4% implied odds at this price.

Top 10: Daniel Suarez (+105 via BetRivers Sportsbook) | 1u

While Daniel Suarez has lacked quality finishes at COTA, he hasn’t lacked speed, sitting eighth in the Next-Gen total speed rankings. In 2022, Suarez qualified on the front row, led 15 laps and won Stage No. 1. Some issues ultimately negated him to a P24 finish, as they did last year when he was running top five in the second overtime before slashing a tire.

With a win already under his belt this season, Suarez can gamble during stage breaks and position himself to be upfront at the end of the race. Let’s ride with the No. 99 car to score his second T10 of the season.

Other Bets on My Card:

Truck & Xfinity Series Bets

Tail Seth’s Plays on the BP App @Between_SethFF

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.