2024 Food City 500: NASCAR at Bristol Odds, Picks & Predictions
Welcome to the ground floor of the NASCAR betting scene. Where kids who grew up on racing are now parlaying that knowledge into profitable weekends at the track. From rednecks to stat nerds, grease monkeys to white-collared city slickers, this game doesn’t discriminate.
In fact, this niche betting market is perhaps on the precipice of becoming mainstream with the latest boon. On Monday, March 11, North Carolina legalized online sports betting.
While most recognize the Old North State as home to most NASCAR racing teams, Wilkes County is also referred to as one of the birthplaces of stock car racing. Homemade liquor during the Prohibition era, outlaw car chases and - eventually - the opening of North Wilkesboro Speedway, this backstory has it all.
Now, 76 years after NASCAR was founded, the place where it all began can now legally gamble on the outcome of races.
And we’re already seeing the impact. Outright and prop odds were up earlier than usual this week. For once, mainstream sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel had competitive odds and some diversity in their offerings. Some shops are even offering futures for the Coca-Cola 600.
Welcome to the party, North Carolina. We’re happy to have you. Buckle up; it’s only up from here.
Here’s the data I considered for this week’s Food City 500:
- 2023 Bristol (Finishes, total speed rankings* & loop data*)
- 2022 Bristol (Finishes & total speed rankings*)
- 2023 & 2022 Dover (Finishes & total speed rankings*)
- Recent performance & current standings
*via ifantasyrace.com
While this unique .533-mile concrete punch bowl offers more variance than some short tracks, it is also highly dependent on qualifying. At Bristol, exactly one in every three winners comes from the front row and 78% start in the top 10 of the grid. Therefore, it is a good idea to save a good margin of your unit allocation for post-practice and qualifying.
That said, there are still some lines to exploit before the cars hit the track on Saturday evening. Here’s my betting card for the Food City 500 heading into the weekend.
2024 Food City 500: NASCAR at Bristol Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted)
Top 5: Ty Gibbs (+200 via BetRivers Sportsbook) | .5u
Let’s be honest; the ascension of Ty Gibbs happened way quicker than anyone thought it would. Through four races of his second full-time season in the Cup Series, Gibbs is No. 1 in average finish (8.8), one of three drivers with three T10s and top 10 in average starting position (12.5).
Last year, the 21-year-old started eighth, finished fifth and led 102 laps on the Bristol concrete. Moreover, Gibbs was second in average running position (4.4), No. 2 in pas differential (+10) and third in driver rating (119.8).
Whether it’s Dover, where he was ninth in total speed rankings, the Busch Light Clash, where he dominated the evening or Bristol, Gibbs is the next great short-track racer in the Cup Series. Look for the No. 54 to position himself for his first win at the top level on Sunday.
Top 10: Michael McDowell (+240) | 1u
This number is being bet down as we speak. Considering that Michael McDowell currently leads the Cup Series in the best average starting position this season (6.0), who knows what it could be after qualifying? After starting on the front row twice to begin the season and finishing ninth last week at Phoenix, it’s clear that Front Row Motorsports’ new alliance with Team Penske is paying off.
Seeing that the Phoenix native started fourth, finished sixth and ran 99% of laps inside the top 15 here last season, this was my first and favorite bet of the week. McDowell was fifth in driver rating and fourth in the total speed rankings at Bristol last year, and that’s not an outlier performance. His last five finishes on the Bristol concrete include a P6, P11, P24, P10 and P7. I like my chances of “McNasty” finishing toward the front of the field. And at +240 odds? Just tell me where to sign.
Top 10: Chase Elliott (-105 via Caesars Sportsbook) | .6u
Chase Elliott is currently ninth in the points but has yet to score a T10. The next driver who hasn’t? Carson Hocervar in 25th. Needless to say, the No. 9 team is due for some positive regression. A trip to Bristol is just what the doctor ordered. Elliott has a seventh and second-place finish in the Next Gen era at The Last Great Colosseum.
With Elliot being 10th in the Bristol Next Gen total speed rankings and having the best average starting position (7.9) here among active drivers, I expect this line to be juiced by Sunday morning. Consider getting in on this placement prop and the 20-1 outright while you can.
Other Bets on My Card:
- Ty Gibbs Outright (+1300) | .5u
- Chase Elliott Outright (+2000) | .5u
- Michael McDowell Outright (+6000) | .2u
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Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.