2024 French Open Odds & Picks: Men’s Semifinals

The two Men’s semifinal matches at the French Open are filled with most of the event’s top contenders. The first matchup between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner is a matchup of two of the top-three pre-tournament favorites, while the second semifinal between Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud pits two men who had the fourth and sixth-best pre-tournament odds.

In the post-Big Three era, most tennis fans are looking for the Alcaraz-Sinner rivalry to be the most intense rivalry on the men’s side for years to come, and their last meeting at a Grand Slam (the 2022 US Open quarterfinals) was a five-set thriller that featured two tiebreaks.

And while Casper Ruud made his semifinal appearance via walkover after Novak Djokovic withdrew from the tournament with a torn meniscus, he is well accomplished at this event, and is looking for his third consecutive finals appearance. Alexander Zverev will prove a tough foe, however, and is motivated to win his first Grand Slam title.

Read on for 2024 Men’s French Open picks and predictions for the semifinals.

2024 Men’s French Open Semifinal Picks & Predictions

(odds via DraftKings)

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner Prediction

Both Alcaraz and Sinner came into Roland Garros with injury concerns, and each did not participate in the Italian Open (Alcaraz-right forearm, Sinner-hip). However, Alcaraz declaring that he was scared to hit every forehand 100% before the tournament started has us believing that Sinner has less to worry about his injury going forward than Alcaraz.

Though Alcaraz has had more clay-court success in his career (Sinner's best French Open result prior to this year was reaching the quarterfinals in 2020), Sinner beat the Spaniard in the Umag final two years ago in their only meeting on clay. And while Alcaraz is more widely regarded as the more successful player in majors, advancing to the semifinals or better in five of the last six that he has entered, Sinner has the same amount of Grand Slam victories (50) while being less than two years older.

These two youngsters are evenly matched, with each winning four of their eight head-to-head meetings. Sinner squandered a match point opportunity in their 2022 US Open quarterfinal match, and the fact that he has averaged five breaks of serve through his first five matches in this tournament suggests that he will have plenty of opportunities to win sets and cover this game spread.

Sinner has been the best player in the world this year when fully healthy, winning 33 of his 35 matches. And considering he has won at least one set in each of his last 34 completed ATP main draw matches, he will hopefully dominate in the sets he does win, and make it difficult for Alcaraz to win three more games than the Italian.

Pick: Sinner +2.5 games (-105 on DraftKings)

Casper Ruud vs. Alexander Zverev Prediction

Whereas many tennis matches make bettors get creative with their wagers because of steep moneyline odds removing all value, this matchup is a virtual coin flip, which has us excited to simply back who we think will win this match. For us, that answer is Zverev, even if Ruud has a distinct advantage of being on the court for much less time given that he did not have to play a quarterfinal match.

Zverev and Ruud have split their four head-to-head matches, even though Ruud won the only matchup on clay, a straight-set victory at last year’s French Open. Zverev has served much better this tournament, so we do not expect Ruud to have 10 break-point chances (of which he converted six) like he did in last year’s matchup.

We said when we picked Zverev to win the French Open that it was likely a blessing in disguise that he drew Rafael Nadal as a first-round opponent, as he could not only get over the mental hurdle of losing to him (after he was injured) in the 2022 semifinal, but that such a difficult match would focus him the rest of the way. He is battle-tested with two five-set wins over Holger Rune and Talloon Griekspoor during this run, and while many will pick Ruud being that he is a two-time finalist in this event, Zverev’s four consecutive semifinal appearances are nothing to sneeze at. The German was still working his way back from injury in last year’s French Open thrashing, but he is healthier this year, is in a better place mentally, and he will exact his revenge on Ruud to earn his first finals appearance at Roland Garros.

Pick: Zverev Moneyline (-115 on DraftKings)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01