2024 French Open Odds & Picks: Women’s Semifinals

One of the two Women’s French Open semifinals is exactly what we would have predicted, as World No. 1 Iga Swiatek faces American Coco Gauff. Gauff is making her third straight semifinal appearance at a Grand Slam (won the 2023 US Open, lost in the semifinals at the Australian Open to eventual champion Aryna Sabalenka). She is also the youngest to reach three or more consecutive Grand Slam semifinals since Maria Sharapova in 2006-07. Meanwhile, Swiatek is appearing in her sixth Grand Slam semifinal, and continues her quest four a fourth French Open title in the last five years.

The other semifinal is a surprise matchup between No. 12 seed Jasmine Paolini and unseeded Mirra Andreeva, as the two upset top-four seeds Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka in the quarterfinals, respectively. Neither player had been past the fourth round at a Grand Slam prior to this year.

Read on for 2024 Women’s French Open picks and predictions for the semifinals.

2024 Women’s French Open Semifinal Picks & Predictions

(odds via DraftKings)

Iga Swiatek vs. Coco Gauff Prediction

While Rafael Nadal is known as the "King of Clay" for his 14 French Open titles, Swiatek may be heralded as the more dominant clay-court player by the end of her career. Her 33-2 career record only trails Chris Evert's 34-1 record as the best in the Open era at the French Open by a woman through their first 35 matches, per OptaAce. And Live Tennis disclosed on X that Swiatek is the first player to lose two or fewer games in the fourth round and quarterfinal combined in a Grand Slam since 1989. If you need further vindication of how dominant on clay Swiatek has been, she was a -1600 Moneyline favorite in last year’s semifinal match against Beatriz Haddad Maia, and is now a -700 favorite in this match.

Since saving a match point in a three-set victory over Naomi Osaka, Swiatek has been downright dominant, and owns the head-to-head rivalry with Gauff, going 10-1 with all wins coming in straight sets. While Swiatek was dominating the No. 6 player in the world and reigning Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova and finishing a third consecutive 6-0 set victory, Gauff showed some vulnerability in her quarterfinal match against Ons Jabeur, allowing Jabeur to win 17 of her 18 first-serve points and never getting a look at a break-point in the first set.

Swiatek's victory over Vondrousova was the 40th of her career against a top-10 opponent, and we expect her to make similarly quick work of Gauff on her most comfortable playing surface.

Pick: Under 18.5 games (+100 on DraftKings)

Jasmine Paolini vs. Mirra Andreeva Prediction

Andreeva’s story as a 17-year old French Open semifinalist, and the second-youngest woman ever to even reach the quarterfinals at Roland Garros, is nothing short of amazing. However, given her treacherous run to this point, there is no reason to think she cannot advance one more round and compete for the final on Saturday.

Andreeva is the rightful favorite in this matchup, given the way she has navigated the path through a former World No. 1 Victoria Azarenka, rising American star Peyton Stearns, defeating France’s Varvara Gracheva in a match where the crowd was clearly against her, and now taking down World No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka, whom many believed to be the only woman capable of knocking off Iga Swiatek on the clay in Paris.

Andreeva is mature beyond her years, as evidenced by her run to the fourth round in Madrid in her first-ever WTA main draw tournament. She owns wins over Grand Slam champions Ons Jabeur and Marketa Vondrousova, and has already made history as the youngest Grand Slam semifinalist since Martina Hingis in 1997.

Paolini is projected for a top-10 ranking next week after this deep Roland Garros run, but is unlikely to duplicate her one unforced error and 100% success rate on second-serve points like she had in the first set against Rybakina. Sabalenka was clearly not 100% healthy in her match against Andreeva, but that should not be held against the youngster.

With Andreeva’s O/U of 12.5 games won juiced to -150 to the Under, and the Under of 2.5 sets played juiced to -180, oddsmakers are tipping their hand that they expect Andreeva to win in straight sets. Thus, to mitigate her steeper -150 moneyline odds, we are backing her 1st Set/Moneyline parlay at cheaper -125 odds.

Pick: Andreeva to win the first set and the match (-125 on DraftKings)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01