2024 Paris Olympics Soccer Odds & Picks: Tuesday (7/30)
The men's Olympic soccer group stage wraps up on Tuesday, and we have several pivotal matches on the docket. Below I'll dive into three of the games from a betting perspective and let you know where I'm laying my money on the pitch.
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Tuesday’s Best Olympics 2024 Soccer Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ukraine (+425) vs. Argentina (-155), DRAW (+310) | 2.5 (-130/+100)
Groups C and D already have teams qualified for the knockout stage, but that certainly isn't the case in Group B. All four teams in Group B are 1-0-1, with goal differential being the only differentiator. Both Group B contests kick off at 11:00 a.m. ET, and this match between Ukraine and Argentina will be played at Groupama Stadium in Lyon, France.
Argentina currently sits atop the Group B table, courtesy of their +1 goal differential. I ultimately think that's where they'll finish, and I expect them to collect the three points in this one. Following a 2-1 letdown in the opener against a solid Morrocan side, the White and Sky Blue looked a lot more polished in their 3-1 victory over Iraq. They controlled 68.1% of the possession while amassing 19 shots (7 on target).
Ukraine lost outright to that very same Iraq team in their opener, dropping a 2-1 contest. They also barely escaped with a 2-1 victory over Morocco thanks to a 90'+8' game-winning goal from Ihor Krasnopir. While a win's a win, I don't think Ukraine's U23 club is a serious threat in this one. I expect Argentina to control roughly two-thirds of the possession, which should lead to plenty of scoring chances. Let's lay the juice with the Argentinian moneyline.
Bet: Argentina Moneyline (-155)
Morocco (-220) vs. Iraq (+550), DRAW (+360) | 2.5 (-150/+115)
The other Group B contest pits Morocco against Iraq. Morocco sits in third with a +0 GD while Iraq's currently in the cellar with a -1 goal differential. Kickoff is scheduled for 11:00 a.m. ET from Allianz Riviera in Nice, France.
I'm going to play the Over 2.5 goals in this match. Iraq has seen its last four games across all competitions eclipse this threshold and six of their last eight matches. Morocco has cleared this number in its last three matches.
While we typically see defense step up in big moments, I don't think that'll be the case here. These teams need points if they want to advance to the next round. Look for each nation to take chances all throughout this game, which could leave them vulnerable on the backend. Let's sit back and root for offense in this game, give me the over!
Bet: Over 2.5 Total Goals (-150)
Paraguay (+155) vs. Mali (+170), DRAW (+250) | 2.5 (-125/+100)
Japan (2-0-0, +6 GD) has already booked its ticket to the knockout stage, leaving one spot up for grabs between Paraguay (1-0-0, -3 GD), Mali (0-1-1, -1 GD), and Israel (0-1-1, -2 GD). This match between Paraguay and Mali is set for 3:00 p.m. ET from Parc des Princes in Paris, France.
I'm riding with Paraguay in this match, but I'll play the "draw, no bet" prop instead of the moneyline. Paraguay can get through with a draw, which is why I want to include some insurance with this wager.
However, I think the South American side is the more battle-tested team taking the pitch. They're constantly playing against top-tier opposition back at home, as well as in the friendly department on the world stage. I also believe the 5-0 shellacking at the hands of Japan is a bit exaggerated, as Paraguay only had 10 men for 65+ minutes of the match. They bounced back nicely with a 4-2 win over Israel on matchday two, and if they can find half as much offense, they should cruise to a victory. At the worst, I think their defense holds up for a draw, but Paraguay should be live to win this game outright.
Bet: Paraguay To Win, Draw No Bet (-120)