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2024 PGA Championship: Odds, Picks & Predictions

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My unbridled aggression on the betting card paid off in a huge way this past week. Rory McIlroy slammed the door shut on Xander Schauffele in an utterly dominant final round on Sunday of the Wells Fargo Championship. He paid off a huge two-unit outright bet at +650 and another unit on his top five finish at +170. It was McIlroy’s fourth win at Quail Hollow and yet another massive bankroll builder at Wells Fargo for yours truly.

What an excellent way for McIlroy and I to enter PGA Championship week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky. You might recall McIlroy’s win over Phil Mickelson under the cloak of darkness at Valhalla in 2014. The field is packed with talented golfers riding good form into the second major of the year. This includes Scottie “Daddy” Scheffler, who has won four of his past five starts and is the massive favorite yet again. Spoiler alert: I will not be betting on Scheffler unless his live odds slip to better than 10-1 on Thursday or Friday. Read on for my top 2024 PGA Championship picks.

2024 PGA Championship: Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

The thing with Valhalla is it will test every shot in a player’s arsenal. The layout is more than 7,600 yards long and is the lengthiest par-71 on the 2024 rota. The fairways are lined with nasty bluegrass rough grown out to a lush four inches long. Missing the fairway here is a death knell, with a slight advantage to players with longer carry distances. Finding these tiny greens in regulation will also be a chore, especially when a great many of the approaches will come from more than 200 yards away. Scrambling and bogey avoidance are paramount. A golfer’s form around the green, especially from the sand, is going to separate the pack exponentially. Putting on bentgrass surfaces brings a unique group of players to the forefront, but the whole bag and mental fortitude will be stressed. Pour me three fingers of barrel-proof bourbon, neat, and let’s tee off.

Rory McIlroy

Our hero. It has been quite a week already for McIlroy. His resounding performance at Quail Hollow netted him a cool $3.6 million on Mother’s Day. He then filed for divorce and is still answering for his snub on the PGA player’s board. Phew! Sticking to the golf, Rors is on one hell of a heater. The last time he saw Valhalla he was hoisting the Wannamaker with flickering flashbulbs illuminating the pitch black night. Distractions aside, I can’t help but envision another vintage performance in Louisville this week for McIlroy.

Picks: Outright +750 [1u]; Top-5 +180 [1u]

Brooks Koepka

I just don’t understand the hate Koepka receives. He is a gamer. Though prickly with some characters, he’s all business between the ropes. This is especially true at majors. The three-time PGA champion rates out well in all areas, especially on approach. He is a bomber with an assassin’s edge from tee to green. His recent triumph in Singapore showed his putting woes were in the rearview. Jena better dust off that trophy case again.

Picks: Outright +1600 [1u]; Top-5 +350 [1u]

Justin Thomas

Now on the tee, from Louisville, Kentucky, please welcome Justin Thomas! The massive crowds will be at full throat in support of their native son. Justin Thomas is playing very well this year and Valhalla is in his back yard. Think of the storylines. “JT takes home the Wannamaker…on foot.” Thomas’ short game is world class and his driving accuracy and approach game are rock-solid. This is just about as aggressive as I was on Rory last week.

Picks: Outright +5000 [1u]; Top-10 +400 [1u]

Dustin Johnson

Forget everything we’ve seen from Johnson this year. Valhalla is the type of course where prodigious length off the tee is a real advantage. DJ’s silky short game is another plus. To see the former world number one at 80-1 made me spit out my Capri-Sun. I’m hammering that line.

Picks: Outright +8000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +650 [0.5u]

Deep Shots: Tiger Woods & Phil Mickelson

How about these vibes? Woods won the PGA Championship with a stalking index finger at Valhalla in 2000 as part of the Tiger Slam. Mickelson fell to McIlroy in 2014 under the veil of night. They both have plenty of game to roll back the clock at this venue. Woods’ approach game is stellar, while Mickelson still has one of the best short games on the planet. They are 300-1 and 400-1, respectively, on the outright market, but I am more interested in top-20 and top-30 lines on each.

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2024 PGA Championship Picks & Golfer Profiles

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