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2024 Shriners Children’s 500: NASCAR at Phoenix Odds, Picks & Predictions

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As long as we’re learning while sports betting and playing fantasy sports, are we ever really losing?

That was my mindset following my first losing NASCAR betting card of the season at Las Vegas last week. Even hitting the 3.5-1 outright of Kyle Larson couldn’t save me from pit road trouble, both in the Cup and Truck Series.

I had the following takeaways from the race that was or could have been:

  1. Pit road execution matters more on the intermediate and short tracks and should be factored into betting decisions.
  2. It’s early in the season, so investing too much in any one driver can be a fool’s errand.
  3. While practice and qualifying are important, don’t overweigh it heading into Sunday.
  4. Anything can happen. Just ask William Byron, whose day was nearly ruined by a trash bag and a silver bullet.

With those lessons learned tucked into our back pocket, we move to the first shorter-flat track of the season, Phoenix Raceway, also the home of the championship race.

Here’s the data I considered for the Shriners Children’s 500:

  • 2023 Phoenix (Finishes, total speed rankings* & loop data*)
  • 2022 Phoenix (Finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • Short-Flat Comp Tracks (Finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • Busch Light Clash (Finishes) - slightly

*via ifantasyrace.com

Though many bettors have concerns that the new short track package could disrupt Phoenix’s usual predictability, Roush Fenway Keselowski (RFK) Quality Control Specialist Brian Murphy debunked that earlier this week on the NASCAR Betting Preview Show. That means it’s business as usual in the desert this week.

Here’s my pre-practice and qualifying betting card for the Shriners Children’s 500.

2024 Shriners Children’s 500: NASCAR at Phoenix Odds, Picks & Predictions

Odds courtesy of BetRivers Sportsbook unless noted | 2024 NASCAR: +10.73u

Top 5: Ryan Blaney (+140) | 1.5u

It’s a chalk week, and I won’t fight it. Ryan Blaney could be the new Mr. Consistency at Phoenix, replacing the great Kevin Harvick, who served that role for the last decade-plus. The 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Champion has scored three runner-ups and one P4 in the Next Gen era at Phoenix. That’s good for second in the Phoenix Next Gen total speed rankings. Go back to the Gen 6 car, and it’s seven straight T10s for Blaney and nine in his last 10 at the one-mile oval.

The Hartford, Ohio native isn’t only elite here but at this track style in general. He paced third in the 2023 shorter-flat track total speed rankings. Even in this year’s Busch Light Clash at The Coliseum - a loose comp for Phoenix - the No. 12 car finished third after taking a provisional to make the race and coming from the rear.

This finishing position prop is going for as low as -120 at some shops. I’ll gladly back it at +140 with our friends from Pittsburgh.

Top 5: Kyle Larson (+120) | 1.5u

I’ve had Larson circled for Phoenix since news dropped this offseason that he was one of the drivers testing the new short-track package here. Despite learning that it might not change things too much, I’m still all-in on the Elk Grove, Calif., native.

The No. 5 car is coming off a flawless and dominating win at Las Vegas. To find him well into plus-money for a T5 and 6.5-1 for the outright was surprising.

Larson led 201 laps, finished stage one in second and won stage two in this race last year. He ultimately finished third but also finished fourth and ninth in the only other two races of the Next Gen Era here where he didn’t blow an engine. Despite that P34 DNF, Larson is still fourth in the Phoenix Next Gen total speed rankings.

Barring a pit road hiccup, accident or mechanical failure, Larson will be towards the front of the pack all Sunday.

All Top 1o: Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson & William Byron (+110 via Caesars Sportsbook) | 1u

We’re returning to the combo placement prop market that let us down last week, this time parlaying Blaney, Larson and Byron for a T10. We have all the evidence in the world to back Blaney and Larson for T5; a T10 should be a layup.

As for Byron, he won this race a year ago and finished fourth and sixth in his other two most recent Pheoinix races. The advanced metrics also heavily lean toward Byron. He’s first in the Phoenix Next Gen total speed rankings and second in the 2023 shorter-flat track total speed rankings.

Byron will also spend additional time in the car this weekend, running the Hendrick Motorsports No. 17 Chevrolet in the Xfinity Series. I’ll also be invested there for the 26-year-old to win as a 3-1 favorite.

Other Bets on My Card:

Full Xfinity Series Card | Tail Seth’s Plays on the BP App @Between_SethFF

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.

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