2024 U.S. Open Odds & Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets

by Bo McBrayer |
Jun 11, 2024

The U.S. Open sports the best full-sized field in championship golf. The USGA sets up a treacherous gauntlet each year to establish which golfer can emerge from the wreckage. The 2024 edition is being held at Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina, which means the carnage will be substantial and the scoring will be unbelievably difficult.

Pinehurst saw 40-1 Martin Kaymer win here by eight strokes in 2014, just nine years after super long shot Michael Campbell triumphed over Tiger Woods and company to stun the golf world. The course is primed for a triumphant Father’s Day weekend, with the champion indelibly etched into golf lore.

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2024 US Open Odds & Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets

The name of the game at Pinehurst is getting up and down. The fairways are ample, but fast and roll into a plethora of sandy waste areas. The greens are crowned like a turtle shell, running off into closely mown Bermuda collection areas. Kaymer famously used his putter (Texas wedge style) to meander his way around the course better than everyone else.

Birdies are a bonus, but saving par is a must. When running my weighted statistical model, many of the supposed betting favorites fell by the wayside with increased emphasis on scrambling and short-game metrics. Another sect of longshot golfers emerged in their stead. Should someone put forth an effort reminiscent of Michael Campbell, they will need to grind out pars at a prodigious clip. Here are some of the deeper plays (100-1 or longer) I have my eyes on.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Short-game prowess travels well. The South African Christiaan Bezuidenhout is somehow going out at 110-1 odds, despite finishing fourth at last week’s Memorial. He is fifth-best in this entire field in Strokes Gained: Short Game over his last 24 rounds played. He is also 15th in bogey avoidance, suggesting he handles himself well in adverse scoring conditions. I won’t need much convincing to lay some money on Bezuidenhout this week.

Denny McCarthy

We are all anxiously awaiting the breakthrough week for Denny McCarthy. The Marylander is having an outstanding season, albeit without a victory. We’ve seen him lose in multiple playoffs in the last couple of years, so the game is there. His short game is number one in this field and he’s even better than Bezuidenhout in bogey avoidance and other peripheral stats. You can wager an outright on McCarthy at a whopping 130-1 odds.

Akshay Bhatia

If it weren’t for a streaky putter and a freaky shoulder injury, this golf prodigy would have more than one win this season. Akshay Bhatia famously took down McCarthy in Texas earlier in the season despite separating his shoulder with a celebratory fist pump on the 72nd hole. He is a stellar approach player and has more than adequate length off the tee. You might also be interested to know that Bhatia’s short game is sneaky good. I believe in the 180-1 long shot to keep his card close to squeaky clean.

Brendon Todd

Golf fans call him “The Toddfather.” Brendon Todd is a mercenary of sorts when it comes to playing golf courses that stress creativity and touch around the green, especially on longer courses. He is number one in this field in short game and strokes gained around the green on courses of more than 7,400 yards. This is telling because Todd is not a long hitter and faced many of these up-and-down situations to save par. Todd is also second-best in this field in gaining strokes on par-3s. Betting his 400-1 outright might only allow for a couple of bucks to the gut, but Todd is a cut-making machine and should easily rise to top 30 (+400).

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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