2024 US Open Men’s Final Picks: Jannik Sinner vs. Taylor Fritz

Before this year, the last time an American man reached a major final was Andy Roddick in 2009 (Wimbledon), and Roddick was also the last to win a Grand Slam (the 2003 US Open). Taylor Fritz looks to end that drought for American men when he takes on No. 1 seed Jannik Sinner on Sunday, with each looking for their first US Open titles.

Sinner won his semifinal match impressively over Jack Draper in straight sets, as the No. 25 seed had not dropped a set prior to the semis. He is the first Italian man ever to reach the US Open final, and this is his second Major Final after winning this year's Australian Open. He is chasing further history, trying to become the third man in the Open era to win their first two major titles in the same calendar year.

With Fritz and Jessica Pegula both reaching the final, it marks the first US Open with Americans in both the Women's and Men's final since 2002. Fritz is looking to end a five-match losing streak for American Men in Major finals since 2004.

Read on for our thoughts and predictions for the 2024 Men’s US Open Final: Jannik Sinner vs. Taylor Fritz.

2024 Men’s US Open Final Odds: Jannik Sinner vs. Taylor Fritz

(odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)

• Moneyline: Sinner (-375)/ Fritz (+290)
• Spread: Sinner -5.5 games (-102)/ Fritz +5.5 games (-132)
• Total: Over 38.5 games (-118)/ Under 38.5 games (-112)

Jannik Sinner vs. Taylor Fritz Prediction

Sinner improved to 12-0 against Americans in Majors after beating Tommy Paul in straight sets in the Round of 16. He figures to benefit from a rest advantage given that he played in the afternoon on Friday while Fritz played a much longer five-set match late into Friday night. However, Sinner did aggravate his wrist bracing a fall in his semifinal match, so that injury combined with the fact that he played his match under much more brutal conditions with higher humidity during the day than at night should level the playing field for Fritz.

Sinner is the rightful heavy favorite, and he is not in danger of losing this match outright, given that he already proved capable of winning a hard-court Major and has won 22 of his 24 Grand Slam matches this year. But Fritz has won six consecutive matches  against top-20 opponents in Majors, so he should win at least one set. With FanDuel juicing the Over of 3.5 sets to -164, I can get creative with not only Sinner’s Over total games won, but a set betting pick as well.

There also does not figure to be a lot of breaks of serve, and Fritz is especially capable of going on a serving heater, just as he did when he won 24 of his 25 service points in the second set against Frances Tiafoe. Fewer breaks mean longer sets, and as long as Sinner wins three-plus games in a losing set, I would cash this Over with three other set victories of six games apiece. And Fritz has beaten Sinner once in their two head-to-head matches (both on hard courts), with the American actually holding a 26-23 edge in games won, so I am also taking a flier on him winning one set and losing in four.

Picks: Sinner Over 20.5 total games won (-125 on DraftKings) and Sinner to beat Fritz in four sets (+240 on DraftKings)

Connect with sportsbooks to automatically sync your balances and bets >>

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01