2024 US Open Odds & Picks: Men’s Best Bets
While the Australian Open has been dominated by Novak Djokovic (four of the last six titles) and Rafael Nadal won five of the previous eight French Open titles, the US Open has been the more “wide open” of the four majors on the Men’s side, at least recently. While Djokovic and Nadal have combined for five US Open titles since 2014, the last major of the season has also been won by Marin Cilic, Dominic Thiem, and Daniil Medvedev (which remains each of these three players’ lone major titles to this point). In addition, the US Open is where Carlos Alcaraz won his first Grand Slam title in 2022, and Stan Wawrinka won in 2016, cashing massive +3300 pre-tournament odds.
Are we inevitably in for another Djokovic-Alcaraz final, as we have been treated to at the Olympics and at Wimbledon this year, or can another player lower on the odds board make a surprising run this year?
Read on for our top three picks for the 2024 Men’s US Open winner.
2024 US Open Odds & Picks: Men’s Best Bets
2024 Men’s US Open Winner Odds
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
| PLAYER | ODDS |
| Carlos Alcaraz | +185 |
| Novak Djokovic | +240 |
| Jannik Sinner | +370 |
| Alexander Zverev | +1000 |
| Daniil Medvedev | +1600 |
| Andrey Rublev | +4000 |
| Taylor Fritz | +5000 |
| Holger Rune | +6500 |
| Frances Tiafoe | +8000 |
Top 2024 US Open Winners Picks: Men
Novak Djokovic (+240)
I believe it is imperative to have some exposure to either Carlos Alcaraz or Novak Djokovic if you are putting together a portfolio of Men’s US Open picks, and give the two players’ draws and head-to-head results, the smart money is on Djokovic.
Djokovic has won three of the last four meetings with Alcaraz, two of which were on hard courts in Cincinnati and at the Nitto ATP Finals in 2023. It is also hard to trust Alcaraz given that he admittedly played “the worst match of [his] career” against Gael Monfils last week.
Djokovic comes into New York not having won one of the last three Slams for the first time in 14 years, as the last year he did not win any of the four majors was in 2010. However, he did make the US Open final that year, and the fact that his draw has him avoiding both Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner until the final gives his chances a significant boost.
Daniil Medvedev (+1600)
Daniil Medvedev won the US Open in 2021 and has two other finals appearances at this Grand Slam in the last five years. Thus, he should arguably be fourth on the odds leaderboard behind Alcaraz, Djokovic, and Sinner, and his +1600 odds are a great value as a result.
I understand why his odds are so high, as being placed in Sinner’s quarter, he would potentially have to beat him, Alcaraz, and Djokovic on the way to the title. But things might break well for Medvedev to avoid that gauntlet, and even if he did have to face Sinner, he should like his chances given that he has won seven of their 12 head-to-head matches, including most recently at Wimbledon.
Taylor Fritz (+5000)
When looking for a longshot play to take home the US Open title, the best value of any player lower than Medvedev on the odds leaderboard is the American Taylor Fritz.
Fritz has a potentially difficult clash with Matteo Berrettini in the second round, but I expect him to win that clash of big servers. Fritz avoided the “Big Three” with Zverev, Holger Rune, and Casper Ruud being the biggest favorites other than Fritz and Berrettini to win the third quarter. Oddmsakers at least like Fritz’s chances to go further than Rune, as DraftKings has Fritz as a -230 favorite to advance further than Rune in the tournament. DraftKings also give any American player +900 odds to reach the final, and +1400 odds to win the tournament, so those are also good ways to get involved with Fritz, as that also gives bettors exposure to Tommy Paul and Frances Tiafoe.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.