2024 US Open Odds & Picks: Women’s Semifinals

The last weekend of the final Grand Slam of the 2024 tennis season is upon us, and there are two mouth-watering semifinal matchups awaiting on Thursday in the Women’s Draw.

The semifinals have taken on a sort of “Aryna Sabalenka vs. the field” narrative, as she is the only one of the remaining four participants with Grand Slam title experience. The unseeded Karolina Muchova in the other semifinal is the only other one of the four with finals experience at a major (she finished runner-up at Roland Garros in 2023). However, much of the buzz and excitement from these two matchups will stem from the possibility of an All-American final if Emma Navarro can pull a huge upset of Sabalenka, and if Jessica Pegula can continue her best Grand Slam run with a win over Muchova.

Read on for 2024 Women’s US Open picks and predictions for the semifinals matches: Emma Navarro vs. Aryna Sabalenka & Karolina Muchova vs. Jessica Pegula.

2024 Women’s US Open Semifinal Picks & Predictions

(odds via DraftKings)

Emma Navarro vs. Aryna Sabalenka Prediction

Perhaps the tennis world was ready for Emma Navarro to break out on the scene, as she was the 2021 NCAA Singles champion after all. In just three short years, Navarro is through to her first major semifinal, and her results improved in each of the four Grand Slam tournaments this season.

Navarro is trying to make history as the sixth player in last 40 years to reach the U.S. Open semifinals without a previous main-draw victory in the tournament. While past US Open winners like Bianca Andreescu (2019) and Emma Raducanu (2021) proved able to overcome those same obstacles, Navarro is walking into a match against a different animal in Aryna Sabalenka.

Sabalenka is making a US Open semifinal appearances for the fourth year in a row, and is trying to become the first woman since Angelique Kerber in 2016 to win hard-court titles at both the Australian Open and U.S. Open. She certainly has the power to blow any opponent off the court, as her average topspin forehand speed is higher than all the men and women who competed in the US Open this year, which includes the likes of Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Novak Djokovic. 

Navarro and Sabalenka have split their two head-to-head meetings, but experience plays a huge factor at this stage, and the American crowd can only do so much to spur Navarro on. She was impressive in digging out of a 1-5 hole in the second set against Paula Badosa, winning 24 of the final 28 points in her quarterfinal match. But Sabalenka is too good to relinquish that sort of a lead, and I am backing her to snap her drought of failing to cover the game spread in each of her previous eight Grand Slam semifinals. Sabalenka is 16-1 in her last 17 Grand Slam main draw matches, and she should improve to 17-1 while covering the 4.5-game spread in the process.

Pick: Sabalenka -4.5 games (-120 on DraftKings)

Karolina Muchova vs. Jessica Pegula Prediction

Coming into this year, six of the previous US Open winners from the Women’s Draw were first-time Grand Slam champions since 2014, and both of these women would fit that narrative if they earned the chance to play for the title on Saturday. However, that trend was also a big reason I backed Jessica Pegula’s +1200 pre-tournament odds in my US Open Women’s Best Bets piece, and while I am not backing off that pick now, I will need to get somewhat creative given Pegula’s somewhat steep -165 moneyline odds.

Pegula entered the US Open with an 0-6 record in Grand Slam quarterfinals, so I truly believe the monkey is off her back after her dominating 6-2, 6-4 victory over World No. 1 Iga Swiatek. Pegula is 13-0 in her last 13 WTA main draw matches as a favorite, but Muchova has been no pushover, winning all 10 sets played to this point, and extending her streak of winning the first set in seven straight main draw matches.

I will give Muchova one set, but instead of backing Pegula’s +275 odds to win two sets to one, I will take her to win Over 12.5 games. That covers us if Pegula stays hot and rolls to a straight-set victory, but allows for a win in a tiebreak in one of the sets in the process. It also covers us if Pegula were to lose in three sets, which is not out of the question if mentally she does not get past her huge win over Swiatek.

Pick: Pegula Over 12.5 games won (-110 on DraftKings)

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