2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Picks & Golf Predictions

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 05, 2025

The BettingPros PGA Podcast is back with hosts Pat Fitzmaurice and Bo McBrayer to break down the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Scottie Scheffler (+330) looks for his third win at Bay Hill, while Rory McIlroy (+800) boasts six top-10 finishes in his last eight appearances.

Can Viktor Hovland (50-1) or a dark horse like Denny McCarthy (75-1) cash big? We break down the best bets, course analysis, and one-and-done picks for this PGA Signature Event. Don't miss our longshot plays and live betting angles for a tough test at Bay Hill!

Our discussion includes updated odds, expert parlays, strategic one-and-done picks, a comprehensive look at the field, and a deep dive into the course’s unique characteristics. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or new to golf betting, our insights will help you make informed decisions. Don’t forget to subscribe for weekly episodes covering the highs and lows of PGA betting.

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2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Bets & Predictions

Here is our sports betting overview, picks, and predictions for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Betting Overview & Picks for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational

🏌️ Tournament Breakdown:

Event: 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge (Orlando, FL)
Par/Yardage: Par 72, 7,466 yards
Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler (-15, won by 5 strokes over Wyndham Clark)
Cut Rules: Field trimmed to 50 players + ties after two rounds. Players within 10 shots of the lead also make the cut.

🏆 Key Course Insights:

Difficult Track: One of the toughest non-major PGA Tour courses.
Wind a Factor: Winds expected 10-20 mph on Sunday with potential rain.
Key Stats for Success:
- Scrambling & Short Game - Essential due to thick rough & fast greens.
- Long Iron Play (200+ yards) - Crucial with several long Par 3s.
- Par 5 Scoring - The best birdie opportunities.
- Bogey Avoidance - Avoiding doubles & worse is key.

?"? Official Betting Picks & Analysis

?"? Outright Winner Picks:

🏆 Rory McIlroy (+800)
- Elite track record at Bay Hill: 1 win, 4 top-5s in last 8 appearances.
- 5th in scrambling - Huge edge on this course.
- Top-10 in every key metric except long Par 3s.
Victor Hovland (+5000)
- Ball-striking machine, excellent long iron play.
- Top-10 at Bay Hill in 2 of the last 3 years.
- Big value at 50-1.
Shane Lowry (+5500)
- 3rd place finish last year at Bay Hill.
- One of the best wind players on tour, key with Sunday's forecast.
Russell Henley (+5500)
- Florida golf specialist, consistent recent form.
- 3 top-10s in his last 4 events.
- 13th at Bay Hill last year.
Denny McCarthy (+7500)
- Best scrambler in the field.
- 5th in bogey avoidance.
- Solid ball striking with great short game.

?"? Top-10/Top-20 Bets:

Tommy Fleetwood (Top-10, +350)
- Proven wind player, strong history at Bay Hill.
- Good long iron play, reliable short game.
Billy Horschel (Top-10, +600)
- 2nd at Bay Hill in 2022.
- Strong form in Florida events.
Harris English (Top-20, +600)
- Finished 2nd at Bay Hill in 2023.
- Winner of Farmers Insurance Open earlier this season.

?"' Key Betting Strategy for Bay Hill:

✅ Avoid Poor Scramblers: This course punishes bad short games.
✅ Target Long Iron Specialists: Several 200+ yard approaches make ball striking critical.
✅ Look for Wind Specialists: Wind is a major factor especially on Sunday.
✅ Live Betting on Scottie Scheffler: If he doesn't pull away early, a live bet at better odds may be a sharp play.

Would you like a betting cheat sheet for The Players Championship next week? ?"?🏌️?"?

2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational Timestamps:

Introduction – 0:00:00
Recap Cognizant Classic – 0:00:22
Bay Hill – 0:07:17
Favorites – 0:10:59
Scottie Scheffler – 0:11:38
Rory McIlroy – 0:11:58
Scottie Scheffler – 0:12:46
Rory McIlroy – 0:13:08
Xander Schauffele – 0:13:36
Collin Morikawa – 0:13:55
Justin Thomas – 0:14:01
Sungjae Im – 0:14:24
Matt Fitzpatrick – 0:14:36
Favorites Discussion – 0:14:47
Mid Range – 0:16:17
Tony Finau – 0:17:08
Viktor Hovland – 0:17:22
Corey Conners – 0:17:41
Keegan Bradley – 0:17:50
Viktor Hovland – 0:18:22
Shane Lowry – 0:18:40
Russell Henley – 0:18:53
Max Homa – 0:19:23
Justin Rose – 0:20:33
Denny McCarthy – 0:21:04
Billy Horschel – 0:21:39
Harris English – 0:21:54
Betting Cards – 0:22:13
One And Done – 0:23:27
Closing – 0:26:28

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What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.

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