Navigate

2025 Belmont Stakes Predictions: Longshot Bets & Sleeper Picks

by |

Sovereignty and Journalism are getting all of the attention as they gear up for their Kentucky Derby rematch. Sovereignty won the Run for the Roses, then sat out of the Preakness, which Journalism ultimately won. Now, both horses have odds of 2/1 or better. 

With Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Baeza sitting at 4/1 odds, and Rodriguez, a Bob Baffert horse that scratched before the Kentucky Derby, sitting at 6/1, only four of the eight horses have odds of 10/1 or longer. Can any of these horses boost the odds of your exotics, or even potentially win? Here are the best Belmont Longshot bets.

2025 Belmont Stakes Predictions: Best Longshot Bets, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Hill Road (10/1)

At 10/1, Hill Road isn't much of a longshot, but when you consider that four horses have significantly shorter odds than him, this is a good place to start when trying to find some value betting this race. Hill Road is coming off an impressive showing at the Peter Pan Stakes (Grade III). He ran well behind the leaders, then used a massive finish to pass them and secure a narrow victory.

If you watch that race, it's clear Hill Road had a lot left in the tank as that race was ending, while every other horse was starting to taper. The Belmont is usually 1 1/2 miles, but this year it will only be 1 1/4 miles. I'd probably like Hill Road even more if the race were longer, because this is a horse whose placements have been better the further he runs.

Hill Road’s last two races at 1 1/16 miles saw him finish third, but the 1 1/8-mile Peter Pan seemed like a great distance for him. Can he beat four really good horses? Probably not. But he could absolutely elevate the odds of some exotics.

Crudo (15/1)

Seeing Crudo at 15/1 just shows how great the talent in this race is. He's won back-to-back races, including the 1 1/16-mile Sir Barton Stakes on May 17th. In that race, Crudo led from wire-to-wire, pulling away from the pack late to win by 7 1/2 lengths.

Crudo is one of two Todd Pletcher horses running in this race. Uncaged doesn't have a chance to make any noise, but Crudo does. With John Velazquez aboard, Crudo is being ridden by a jockey who has won two Belmont Stakes. This is a horse that isn't afraid to take the lead, which may not be the smartest approach if these horses go out at a blistering pace. But based on what he showed at the Sir Barton Stakes, there's no reason to doubt this horse, even if the race is 3/16 of a mile longer than his last outing. This horse can win the Belmont.

Heart of Honor (30/1)

After three consecutive second-place finishes in Dubai, Heart of Honor made his US debut at the Preakness Stakes (Grade I). The race did not go well. While Heart of Honor ultimately finished fifth, he was never competitive in the race, finishing 8 and 3/4 lengths behind the winner. 

That said, this is a much longer race than the Preakness, and that may favor Heart of Honor. This is a horse that went out slow in the second leg of the Triple Crown, but started to pick off horses on the home stretch as they faltered.

Could the length of this race and the competitiveness of the top four horses lead to a lot of horses struggling to reach the finish line? I think so. And Heart of Honor won't ever be in the mix to win. Jockey Saffie Osborne will let her horse run his race, which means this could be a shocking third or fourth-place contender. At 30/1, Heart of Honor is worth throwing in some exotics.

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App