This Saturday will be five weeks since The Run for the Roses and that means it’s time for the 157th Belmont Stakes. The longest Triple Crown race, the aptly nicknamed Test of the Champion is normally run at 1 1/2 miles in the deep sand of “Big Sandy.” However, due to ongoing renovations, The Run for the Carnations will run at Saratoga and will only be 1 1/4 miles. Post time is approximately 6:49 pm ET on Saturday, June 7 at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York.
I am a process-driven bettor who tries to bring a method to the madness that is sports betting, specifically horse racing, so let’s look at historic trends for the Belmont Stakes to put together our tickets and best bets.
2025 Belmont Stakes Best Bets & Trends
Winning Trends by Post Position Since 1904
1 – Hill Road (10-1) – (Post 1 winners – 24, Most Recent – Justify, 2018)
2 – Sovereignty (2-1) – (Post 2 winners – 13, Most Recent – Essential Quality, 2021)
3 – Rodriguez (6-1) – (Post 3 winners – 16, Most Recent – Arcangelo, 2023)
4 – Uncaged (30-1) – (Post 4 winners – 10, Most Recent – Summer Bird, 2009)
5 – Crudo (15-1) – (Post 5 winners – 15, Most Recent – American Pharoah, 2015)
6 – Baeza (4-1) – (Post 6 winners – 10, Most Recent – Dornoch, 2024) (Won two of last three)
7 – Journalism (8-5) – (Post 8 winners – 14, Most Recent – Sir Winston, 2019)
8 – Heart of Honor (30-1) – (Post 8 winners – 7, Most Recent – Tiz the Law, 2020)
9 – N/A (Post 9 winners -4, Most Recent – Afleet Alex, 2005)
10 – N/A (Post 10 winners – 1, Most Recent – Thunder Gulch, 1995)
11 – N/A (Post 11 winners – 3, Most Recent – Tonalist, 2014)
12 – N/A (Post 12 winners – 1, Most Recent – Palace Malice, 2013)
13 – N/A (Post 13 winners – 1, Most Recent – Creator, 2016)
The first seven posts have been the most advantageous throughout Belmont Stakes history with all having produced at least 10 winners with Gate 6 rounding out the group with their 10th champion in Dornorch. While Gate 1 (Hill Road) has historically been the winningest post, over the past 24 races, Gates 3 (Mystik Dan) and 7 (Protective) have each produced three winners, the most of any post during that span. Even more recently, only Gates 2 (Sovereignty), 5 (Crudo), and 6 (Baeza) have produced multiple winners in the last 12 years with two of the last three champions firing out of Gate 6. In fact, it has been over a decade (2014) since a horse starting outside Post 8 has won the Belmont.
Trend-Based Bad Bets
There are no bad horses, only bad bets, so we will use the phrase “Trend-Based Bad Bets” for the following entrants. These are horses that statistically and historically face factors that are poor bets to win the Belmont Stakes. Anything is possible in horse racing, but I am a process-driven bettor and these bets are the antithesis of process-driven. Full disclosure, Mage fell into this section in my Kentucky Derby preview, due to not having run as a 2-year-old, but like I said, anything can happen on race day.
Preakness Weakness
Only three of the last 21 Belmont Stakes winners have won after running in the Preakness Stakes. Of those three winners, American Pharoah (’15) and Justify (’18) were both on their way to becoming Triple Crown champions, and the third, Afleet Alex (’05), also won the Preakness. The only two Belmont entrants that ran in this year’s Preakness are winner Journalism and Heart of Honor. Journalism comes in off a Preakness victory and narrow defeat in the Derby, so he at least has a chance against this negative metric, but recent history rules out Heart of Honor.
Favorites, Schmavorites
Favorites have lost 16 of the last 22 Belmonts, another negative trend Journalism looks to shake off. However, four of the last 10 favorites have won, but two of those were on their way to Triple Crowns and were bucking all sorts of trends. If you take those two out, 15 of the last 20 favorites (75%) who did not go on to win the Triple Crown lost on Belmont Day.
Positive Belmont Trends
Nonstop From Kentucky to New York
Over the last 22 years, 14 Belmont winners have also run in the Kentucky Derby. Additionally, of those 14 winners, 11 have raced in the Belmont without running in a race since the Derby with the three exceptions being the aforementioned Preakness winners, Triple Crown champions, American Pharoah and Justify, along with Afleet Alex. Journalism and Heart of Honor are coming in having run in both the Derby and the Preakness, the only two such horses in the field.
The Longest Odds in the Longest Race
Nine of the last 22 Belmont Stakes winners have opened with double-digit odds including last year’s winner, Dornach, who opened at 15-1 and went off at 17-1. Ever since Angel of Empire’s great-grandsire, Empire Maker, won the Belmont in 2003 at 3-1, nine of the last 21 Belmont winners have run at double-digit odds, beginning with Birdstone in 2004. This includes eight of the last 17 winners running at double-digit odds, despite the aforementioned four of the last 10 Belmonts being won by favorites. This year, four horses opened with double-digit odds: Hill Road (10-1), Uncaged (30-1), Crudo (15-1), and Heart of Honor (30-1).
Making the Grade
Since 2003, 15 of the 22 Belmont winners had a previous graded stakes victory, including 11 of the last 13. If you In fact, of the seven winners that had not won a graded stakes race, six had at least finished in the money. In this field, Hill Road, Sovereignty, Rodriguez, Crudo, and Journalism have all won graded stakes races. Baeza has not won a graded stakes race but was run down by Journalism and placed second at the Santa Anita Derby and finished in the money at the Derby so he remains in the running with this trend. However, it doesn’t doesn’t bode well for the remaining horses who have only won or placed in local stakes races at best.
Need for Speed
In recent years, the Belmont has favored pacesetters and stalkers, as 14 of the last 17 winners have been within 4 1/2 lengths of the leader after the opening 1/2 mile. The only two horses to win after being in the back half of the field at the 1/2 mile mark are Sir Winston in 2019 and Creator in 2016. If you take things back to 2005, 16 of the last 20 Belmont champions fit this criterion. Dating back to 2008, 14-of-17 winners (82.35%) and 12 straight have run the 1/2 mile in under 49 seconds, with two of the last five running it in under 47 seconds. That being said, the ultimate closers are in this race: Journalism and Sovereignty. They can both close with the best of them but Journalism showed off that freak kick in the Preakness and hit that high gear all night long. With this year’s race being run at 1 1/4 miles rather than the traditional 1 1/2 miles, a closer could play a bigger factor without having their own usual fatigue before the final stretch of the Belmont.
Peter Pan Winner is No Lost Boy
Hill Road already has a graded stakes win in New York under his belt as he comes in fresh off a victory in the Peter Pan Stakes back on May 10. Despite 14 of the last 21 Belmont winners having run in the Kentucky Derby, in the past 15 years, the Peter Pan Stakes or a race with the exact same conditions run sometime between the Derby and the Belmont has acted as a springboard for four different horses (26.7%) including the 2014 Peter Pan and Belmont Stakes winner, Tonalist. Uncaged also ran in the Peter Pan Stakes but he finished 6th so it remains to be seen how each horse builds on their performances.
Pletcher, Pletcher, Belmont Money Catcher
Trainer Todd Pletcher has won four of the last 18 (22.2%) Belmont Stakes. On top of that, in the last 2o Belmonts, in addition to his four winners, Pletcher has had nine horses Place and had three more Show. In that span, 60 horses have finished in the money at the Belmont, and 16 have been trained by Todd Pletcher, which is an incredible 26.7%. This insane number bodes well for Uncaged and Crudo, both of whom are in Pletcher’s barn and account for 25% of this year’s field.
Pedigrees
Hill Road (Quality Road – Exotic Notion by Lemon Drop Kid)
Sovereignty (Into Mischief – Crowned by Bernardini)
Rodriguez (Authentic – Cayala by Cherokee Run)
Uncaged (Curlin – Dark Nile by Pioneerof the Nile)
Crudo (Justify – Blossomed by Deputy Minister)
Baeza (McKinzie – Puca by Big Brown)
Journalism (Curlin – Mopotism by Uncle Mo)
Heart of Honor (Honor A.P. – Ruby Love by Scat Daddy)
2025 Belmont Stakes Best Bets
Best Boxed Superfecta: Journalism – Sovereignty – Baeza – Rodriguez (7-2-6-3)
Longshot: Crudo (5)
For more information on how to bet futures, check out our Betting 101 series>>
Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports and Discord @alydar1227 AKA The GIFTing Crooner. For more from Luke, check out his archive.