2025 French Open Odds & Picks: Men’s Semifinals
The cream rose to the top in the Men’s draw of the French Open, as all four favorites to win their quarters reached the semifinals. In addition, Lorenzo Musetti, Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Novak Djokovic were all within the top-five pre-tournament favorites to take home the title at Roland Garros.
Is there anything that will get in the way of an Alcaraz-Sinner final? Those two were the only men with shorter than +1400 odds before the tournament started. Will Djokovic keep his quest alive for a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title?
Read on for 2025 Men’s French Open picks and predictions for the semifinals.
2025 Men’s French Open Semifinal Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
Alcaraz is a big favorite in this matchup given his -650 moneyline odds, which carry an 86.67% implied probability. However, this match should be far from a rout given how Musetti has played on clay.
This season, Musetti was a finalist at Monte Carlo and made the semis in Madrid and Rome. He also owned five top-10 wins on clay this season entering his quarterfinal match against Tiafoe. Musetti is now 19-3 on clay this season and owns eight top 20 wins. He is just the fifth player all-time to reach the semifinals or better at all three clay Masters tournaments and Roland Garros in the same year.
Musetti moves very well and often frustrates opponents by forcing them to hit extra shots to win points or stay in rallies. While the same can certainly be said of Alcaraz, I am going against the narrative that the pre-tournament favorite is going to have a cake walk to the final.
Over 3.5 sets have been played in 14 of Musetti’s last 18 Grand Slam main draw matches. He has also covered the game spread in 12 of his last 15 matches overall. I am backing Musetti +6.5 games, with the idea that he will win at least one set outright.
Pick: Musetti +6.5 Games (-105)
Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction
This line was all over the place upon first release at the conclusion of Wednesday’s quarterfinal matches. Sinner opened as a -410 moneyline favorite and was quickly bet down to -390. However, as of this writing he ballooned all the way to -450, which suggests sharps clearly favor the Italian.
Djokovic looked as impressive as ever against Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals after dropping the first set. He won 24 of 29 points at one point between the third and fourth sets. However, Djokovic is just the fifth man 38 years old or older to reach a major semifinal. Additionally, he has been on the court considerably longer than Sinner, who has not dropped a set and has won six sets in this tournament at 6-0 or 6-1.
Sinner and Djokovic have split their eight head-to-head meetings, but Sinner has won four of the last five. They last met in a major at the 2024 Australian Open, with Sinner winning in four sets (his only set loss was in a tiebreaker).
Sinner is 10-7-1 against the game spread this season, and he is much more likely to win a lopsided set than is Djokovic. With the odds going mightily in his favor, I am backing him to cover the games spread once again, as he has done in three of the last four meetings with Djokovic.
Pick: Sinner -5.5 Games (-140)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01