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2025 Mexico Open at Vidanta: PGA Picks & Golf Predictions

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The BettingPros PGA Podcast is back with hosts Pat Fitzmaurice and Bo McBrayer to break down the 2025 Mexico Open at Vidanta World. Join us as we recap Ludvig Åberg’s impressive victory at the 2025 Genesis Invitational. Plus, they break down the course at VidantaWorld and evaluate betting odds for players such as Kurt Kitayama, Patrick Rodgers, and Rasmus Højgaard. Stay ahead of the game with expert PGA analysis.

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2025 Mexico Open at Vidanta Best Bets & Predictions

Our discussion includes updated odds, expert parlays, strategic one-and-done picks, a comprehensive look at the field, and a deep dive into the course’s unique characteristics. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or new to golf betting, our insights will help you make informed decisions. Don’t forget to subscribe for weekly episodes covering the highs and lows of PGA betting.

Overview of the Tournament & Course (Vidanta World)

  • The Mexico Open at Vidanta is the first stop on the PGA Tour's Latin American stretch, transitioning from the California Swing to the Florida Swing.
  • Vidanta World (formerly Vidanta Vallarta) is a long course (7,436 yards, Par 71) that heavily favors bombers.
  • The fairways are wide with minimal rough, so there's little penalty for missing fairways, reinforcing an advantage for long hitters.
  • The greens are Paspalum, known to be slow and sticky, which can level the playing field for weaker putters.
  • Wind is typically a factor, but forecasted conditions are mild (5-10 mph winds, low to mid-80s temperatures).
  • Key Stats for Success:
    • Driving Distance ?' Bombers have a distinct edge.
    • Long Iron Play (Approach from 200+ yards) ?' Many approach shots are from longer ranges.
    • Birdie or Better Percentage ?' Low-scoring conditions demand strong birdie conversion.
    • Par 5 Scoring ?' The par fives are reachable for big hitters, offering eagle opportunities.
    • Putting on Slow Greens ?' Players who excel on slower Paspalum greens have an advantage.

Past Winners at Vidanta World

  • 2024: Jake Knapp (-19), defeated Sami Valimaki by two strokes.
  • 2023: Tony Finau (-24), showcasing how bombers thrive here.
  • 2022: Jon Rahm (-17), further emphasizing the course's favorability toward big hitters.

Top Picks & Betting Analysis

Favorites & Mid-Tier Contenders

1️⃣ Rasmus Højgaard (20-1)
  • Why Bet Him?
    • Bo McBryde’s top choice among favorites.
    • Strong form leading up to the event.
    • Big hitter, which is essential for success at Vidanta World.
    • Better recent form than his brother, Nicolai Højgaard.
2️⃣ Kurt Kitayama (22-1)
  • Why Bet Him?
    • Finished runner-up to Jon Rahm in 2023.
    • Excellent combination of distance & approach play.
    • Not in peak form, but statistically fits this course well.
3️⃣ Sam Stevens (22-1)
  • Why Bet Him?
    • Ranked No. 1 in Bo's stat model.
    • Top 10 in strokes gained tee-to-green.
    • Finished 2nd at the Farmers Insurance Open (Tory Pines) recently, which has similarities to this course.
    • Pat Fitzmaurice's One-and-Done pick for the week.
4️⃣ Patrick Rodgers (22-1)
  • Why Bet Him?
    • Top 10 at the Mexico Open in each of the last three years.
    • Coming off a 4th-place finish at the Genesis Invitational.
    • Has a history of competing well on longer courses.
5️⃣ Justin Lower (50-1)
  • Why Bet Him?
    • Birdie machine (No. 1 in Birdie-or-Better Percentage in the field).
    • Top 10 in Approach Play, Short Game, and Putting on Slow Greens.
    • A high-value mid-tier bet, according to Bo.

Longshots to Consider

1️⃣ Lanto Griffin (80-1)
  • Why Bet Him?
    • Top 3 in Bo's stat model.
    • Top 10 in Birdie-or-Better Percentage, Par 5 Scoring, and Approach Play.
    • A mispriced contender with excellent value.
2️⃣ Norman Xiong (350-1)
  • Why Bet Him?
    • Super deep long shot, but Bo loves him as a wild-card pick.
    • 8th in Driving Distance, No. 1 in Par 5 Scoring, and Top 10 in Short Game & Birdie Percentage.
    • Comparable to last year's winner, Jake Knapp-big hitter with strong par 5 play.
3️⃣ Aldrich Potgieter (70-1)
  • Why Bet Him?
    • Young South African golfer with elite distance off the tee.
    • Ranked No. 1 in Driving Distance and No. 2 in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee.
    • Recent 15th-place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open (Tory Pines), another long course.

Early Betting Cards & One-and-Done Picks

Bo McBryde's Betting Card:

✅ Rasmus Højgaard (20-1)
✅ Kurt Kitayama (22-1)
✅ Justin Lower (50-1) + Top 10 & Top 20
✅ Lanto Griffin (80-1)
✅ Norman Xiong (350-1) + Top 20

🏌️ One-and-Done Pick: Rasmus Højgaard

Pat Fitzmaurice's Betting Card:

✅ Sam Stevens (22-1)
✅ Alex Smalley (40-1)
✅ Nicolai Højgaard (50-1)
✅ Michael Thorbjornsen (55-1)
✅ Aldrich Potgieter (70-1) + Top 5 Finish

🏌️ One-and-Done Pick: Sam Stevens

Final Takeaways

  • Vidanta World heavily favors bombers, making driving distance & par 5 scoring key factors.
  • Big-name players are absent, meaning longshots have a real chance to win.
  • Bo's Deep Sleeper Pick: Norman Xiong (350-1) as this year's Jake Knapp.
  • Fitzmaurice is banking on Sam Stevens, while Bo favors Rasmus Højgaard.

?"? Best Value Bet: Justin Lower (50-1) - A Birdie Machine
?"? Best Sleeper Pick: Lanto Griffin (80-1) - Statistically Underpriced
?"? Wild Longshot: Norman Xiong (350-1) - The Next Big Breakout?

This week’s Mexico Open is a prime opportunity for betting longshots and taking advantage of a weaker field. Stay tuned for the Florida Swing next week!

2025 Mexico Open at Vidanta Best Bets & Predictions Timestamps

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