2025 NBA Finals Preview: Picks & Predictions (Pacers vs. Thunder)

Here’s our 2025 NBA Finals Preview that includes picks and predictions for this exciting showdown between the Pacers and Thunder.

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2025 NBA Finals Preview: Picks & Predictions

The Indiana Pacers were counted out a long time ago. Yet, the Pacers have earned an NBA Finals appearance after earning series wins over the Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers, and New York Knicks. But despite all the dominance from the Pacers in the Eastern Conference, they’re still massive underdogs against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA Finals.

Per FanDuel, the Thunder are -750 to win the NBA Finals, while the Pacers are +530. This is ultimately mind-boggling, especially since the Pacers never needed more than six games in any series to beat their opponent.

While the Thunder put together an incredible regular season, Oklahoma City was one loss to the Denver Nuggets away from missing the Western Conference Finals.

That said, is there value in the Pacers entering the 2025 NBA Finals? Here’s our 2025 NBA Finals Preview.

Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the best defense in the NBA Playoffs. The Thunder have limited opponents to 106.2 points per 100 possessions and have held teams to a 50.2% effective field goal percentage. Beyond that, the Thunder have forced 18% of turnovers in the NBA Playoffs, which is the best rate since the playoffs started.

Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers have scored close to 120 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs. They’ve also nailed a 58.3% effective field goal percentage and have turned the ball over just 12.5% of the time in the postseason.

Something’s got to give. Either the Thunder limit the Pacers from the field, or the Pacers continue to find good shots and knock them down. Of course, the Pacers will look to run and play at a fast pace. That’s how they’ve been able to dominate offensively in the postseason. However, the Thunder rarely turn the ball over on their end and have scored nearly 118 points per 100 possessions.

If the Thunder keep turnovers down and take good shots, it’ll be hard for the Pacers to get easy transition looks. It’ll disrupt the pace and force the Pacers to play offense against a Thunder team that does a terrific job at communicating and switching. So far in the playoffs, the Thunder have turned the ball over just 11.1% of the time. If the turnovers stay down, the Pacers won’t be able to get out fast for easy buckets.

The only way the Pacers can find success is by capitalizing on long rebounds and missed shots from the Thunder. It’s certainly possible. After all, the Thunder have shot a 53.5% effective field goal percentage and have only earned 28.5% of offensive rebounds per game in the playoffs. The Thunder don’t take the best looks. That’s why the Pacers have a legitimate chance to steal a few games in this series.

However, the Thunder are way more balanced on both ends of the floor. The Pacers likely won’t have much success on the offensive glass in this series, either.

The Pacers should at least keep this series competitive. They’ll win a couple of games at home. However, I like the Thunder to win this series in six games, 4-2.

You can find the Thunder to win the series 4-2 using FanDuel at +440 odds.  Additionally, the Over/Under for the series is currently set at 5.5, with the Over priced at +120. That’s another bet to consider.

Series Correct Score: Thunder 4-2 +440

Series Total Games: Over 5.5 +120