2025 NCAA Tournament Line Movement & Win Percentages: Round 1 (Thursday)
Now that the March Madness bracket has been released for a couple of days, the sharp sportsbooks finally made the necessary line movements, allowing for higher limits.
We’ve discussed every game in March Madness. However, we haven’t reviewed the spreads and win percentages of some of the most significant games on the slate yet.
Below, I’ll touch on some of the biggest games for Thursday’s slate.
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Spread & Win Percentages For Thursday’s Round 1 Games
9. Creighton vs. 8. Louisville (-2.5)
Louisville’s Win Percentage: 57.81%
I ultimately think the winner of this game will knock off Auburn in the Round of 32. I know, it’s bold. But most of the time, one one-seed gets dropped before the Sweet 16.
Louisville has a chip on its shoulder, and Creighton has been consistent in the NCAA Tournament over the last two seasons.
13. High Point vs. 4. Purdue (-7.5)
Purdue’s Win Percentage: 77.01%
The Purdue Boilermakers have a 77.01% chance of winning against High Point. However, this will be a popular upset pick for many. The Boilermakers have struggled to defend inside the arc, while High Point has shot 55.5% from inside the arc this season.
12. McNeese vs. 5. Clemson (-7.5)
Clemson’s Win Percentage: 75.00%
This will be another popular upset pick. However, Will Wade’s NCAA Tournament resume isn’t the best. He’s lost more times than he’s won.
11. VCU vs. 6. BYU (-2.5)
BYU’s Win Percentage: 59.35%
Not only is VCU a dangerous offense, but the Rams have held teams to a 44.4% effective field goal percentage this season. BYU could struggle.
9. Georgia vs. 8. Gonzaga (-6.5)
Gonzaga’s Win Percentage: 71.83%
I can’t remember the last time Gonzaga lost a first-round game. Let’s just keep it at that.
10. Arkansas vs. 7. Kansas (-4.5)
Kansas’ Win Percentage: 65.75%
John Calipari vs. Bill Self in the first round is legendary stuff.
13. Yale vs. 4. Texas A&M (-6.5)
Texas A&M’s Win Percentage: 74.68%
Yale defeated Auburn as a 13-seed last year. They can certainly escape Texas A&M this year.
11. Drake vs. 6. Missouri (-2.5)
Missouri’s Win Percentage: 73.33%
Drake hasn’t made the second round of the NCAA Tournament. But they’ve got a new coach who is successful in tournaments. Ben McCollum won four D-2 championships at Northwest Missouri State.
10. Utah State vs. 7. UCLA (-6.5)
UCLA’s Win Percentage: 67.21%
It’s hard to back a UCLA team that lost in their first game of the Big Ten Tournament. That’s not appealing.
12. UC San Diego vs. 5. Michigan (-2.5)
Michigan’s Win Percentage: 58.33%
The Big Ten Champs only have a 58.33% chance of winning the first-round game against UC San Diego.