2025 NCAA Tournament Picks & Predictions: Final Four (Saturday)
For the first time since 2008, all No. 1 seeds have made the Final Four.
There were no Cinderellas this year. Upsets were rare. But this Final Four should be some of the best college basketball we’ll ever watch.
Ultimately, we’ve got the four best teams in the Final Four. You can’t ask for anything more than that.
Below, I’ll discuss my thoughts on both Final Four games. Let’s get after it.
- NCAA College Basketball Odds
- NCAA College Basketball Player Props
- NCAA College Basketball Picks & Predictions
- NCAA College Basketball Matchups
2025 NCAA Tournament March Madness Bracket Strategy & Betting Picks>>
NCAA Tournament Final Four Betting Preview
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 1 Auburn Tigers
The Florida Gators beat the Auburn Tigers 90-81 on the road in February and never looked back after a dominant second quarter of the first half.
Walter Clayton Jr. has been the MVP for the Gators this season. He hit some clutch shots to advance them into the Final Four. Ultimately, he’s the one who came through the most against Auburn in that regular season. Clayton added a team-high 19 points and shot 4-for-8 from downtown in the win. He also assisted on nine baskets and turned the ball over just three times after playing all 40 minutes.
There are many fantastic players on Florida and Auburn, but Clayton is probably the most impactful, beyond Johni Broome of Auburn. Broome finished with 18 points, six assists and six rebounds in the loss against Florida. As a team, the Gators shot just 47.9% from two and 31.8% from three. Both were well below their averages.
That said, Auburn has some impressive wins in the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers haven’t blown any team out. However, they’ve earned three consecutive wins against Creighton, Michigan and Michigan State. All three teams are super well-coached, yet Auburn found a way. The Tigers held all three of those teams to no more than 70 points a game.
If Auburn does that to Florida, the Tigers will move on. However, the Gators have scored at least 77 points in every game in the NCAA Tournament. In the Round of 32 game, the UConn Huskies played incredible defense, and yet Florida still managed 77 points and a win. If the Gators score efficiently, they’ll survive Auburn and advance to the NCAA Championship.
Pick: Florida -2.5 (-115)
No. 1 Houston Cougars vs. No. 1 Duke Blue Devils
The Houston Cougars have won 17 consecutive games and haven’t lost once since December began. However, this team continues to be doubted. According to KenPom, the Houston Cougars have the best defense in the nation. The Cougars have limited teams to a 44.8% effective field goal percentage, giving up only 30.1% from deep and 44.5% from inside the arc.
While Houston fouls at a higher rate, Duke hasn’t earned foul shots at a super high and consistent rate this season. Houston could be one of the only defenses that could slow Duke down. After all, Duke has earned 34.1% of offensive rebounds, but Houston has allowed only 28.7% of offensive rebounds per game. Houston likely limits the Blue Devils to below their season points per game average.
On the other hand, the Blue Devils have limited teams to an even better 44.4% effective field goal percentage. Houston will struggle inside, especially since Duke has allowed only 43.3% from inside the arc this season. Don’t expect the Cougars to be aggressive and get to the foul line. However, Houston should end up with more offensive rebounds and second chances. While Duke has limited opponents to 26.7% of offensive rebounds, Houston has earned nearly 37% of offensive rebounds.
Beyond that, Duke typically forces teams to use 19 seconds per possession, which wears out the opposition. But that won’t be the case for Houston. The Cougars are used to playing slow on offense and are also very efficient.
That favors Houston. Give me Houston +5.5.
Pick: Houston +5.5 (+100)