2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks & Predictions: PGA Sleepers
The PGA Tour’s top 70 golfers, reduced to 69 due to Daniel Berger’s opt-out, means we’ll see plenty of talent on display at the first FedExCup Playoffs event at the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship this week.
TPC Southwind once again plays host to this opening playoff leg. It’s a par 70, running 7,288 yards, with water hazards and small TifEagle Bermudagrass greens, measuring 4,500 square feet and 12.5 feet via Stimpmeter. Small greens mean approach shots become even more critical, while three-inch rough is set to add difficulty to errant tee-to-green play.
Recent winners of the FedEx St. Jude Championship include Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama and Lucas Glover. Rose and Glover were longshots, which instills confidence as we look at current sleeper prospects in the outright winner betting market this week. Remember, no starting strokes format is enforced now, increasing the probability of another longshot claiming victory in Memphis this weekend.
My 2026 Wyndham Championship Picks & Predictions: PGA Sleepers wound up 0-3 with my 80-1 selections. Eric Cole logged the best performance (T28) thanks to an opening round of 63.
Let’s hunt for some longshot sleepers who hold the edge to make a run up the leaderboard to contend for a win at the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free picks and analysis heading into the first event of the 2026 FedExCup Playoffs.
2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks & Predictions: PGA Sleepers
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kurt Kitayama (+6500)
We saw Kurt Kitayama turn in a strong stretch of Top 20 and Top 10 finishes in April and May, while also posting a runner-up finish at The Genesis Invitational back in February.
Kitayama ranks 12th in SG: Approach, including 30th in total strokes gained. He’s 11th in total driving, 16th at finding greens in regulation (70.2%) and 22nd in sand save rate.
In three trips to TPC Southwind, Kitayama has gone MC-T52-T9. While he’s slid outside of a top 20 finish in six straight events, let’s start with a longshot wager on Kitayama at 65-1 this week.
Ryo Hisatsune (+12500)
This is a perfect spot to buy low on Ryo Hisatsune. He doesn’t have a PGA Tour win yet, but he collected four top 10s in 2026.
The Japanese native is 32nd in SG: Off-the-Tee, including 25th in total driving, while sitting 20th in 200+ yard approach shots and eighth for greens in regulation at 70.9 percent.
Hisatsune also sits inside the top-30 for proximity. Putting is the glaring issue, along with other aspects of his short game, which is why we’re landing such a long price on Hisatsune.
Bet on Hisatsune’s tee-to-green accuracy to carry him into contention for a potential longshot win at 125-1.
Brian Harman (+12500)
Oddsmakers continuously disrespect Brian Harman. The 39-year-old Georgia native had his best finish of the season recently at the 3M Open.
Harman is set to make his 15th start at the FedEx St. Jude Championship this week. He’s logged a pair of top 5s here, including a T3 in 2022. Last year, Harman wound up with a T22 finish.
In 2026, Harman’s notable ranks include 34th in driving accuracy, 41st in one-putt rate, while gaining strokes on approach (0.182) and putting (0.108). 55th or better in scrambling, proximity, and 200+ yard approach shots.
Harman defied the odds with his win at The Open Championship a few years ago. He can do it again in Memphis this weekend, so let’s bet on Harman as our final longshot play at +12500 odds.