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2026 NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool Advice: Round 1 (Friday)

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In yesterday’s column, we discussed the differences between an NCAA tournament survivor pool and a more traditional NFL survivor pool. Many of the strategies are different, and contestants should be aware of all the rules and nuances. An NCAA survivor pool involves much more future planning, whereas one can win an NFL survivor pool by taking a week-to-week approach.

Though no first-round games have officially been played yet, we are giving you our planning advice well before the first set of games so you can plan accordingly. And if you do not feel like waiting until the First Four games conclude to make your selections, you should be able to find great picks from the remaining 14 games.

Throughout the tournament, one has to make eight picks:

  • Two for the First Round (one for each day)
  • Two for the Second Round (one for each day)
  • One for the Sweet 16
  • One for the Elite Eight
  • One for the Final Four
  • One for the National Championship.

Each round, we will provide our analysis broken down by the following categories: Best Picks, Favorites on Upset Alert and Teams to Save for Later.

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    2026 March Madness Survivor Pool Advice: Round 1 (Friday)

    Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their first-round matchups on Friday. Be sure to check out the folks at PoolGenius as well for their NCAA survivor data.

    Round 1 Odds

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    Best Picks

    UConn Huskies

    It is unusual for us to advise using a No. 2 seed like UConn this early in an NCAA Tournament survivor pool, but that is how negatively I view the Huskies’ chances of reaching the Final Four or beyond.

    The East Region is loaded with three other head coaches who have won a national title (Rick Pitino, Bill Self, Tom Izzo), one other who has been to a Final Four (Mick Cronin) and the team that just so happens to be the overall No. 1 seed (Duke).

    This UConn team isn’t as talented, and doesn’t play as good defense as the two that won back-to-back National Championships this decade. It would be on upset alert as soon as the Round of 32 if it draws UCLA.

    Kansas Jayhawks

    Kansas has been a hit-or-miss team this year based on Darryn Peterson’s motivation level and/or availability. The Jayhawks might not be favored in another game after this if they draw St. John’s in the Round of 32. They lost three of their four biggest non-conference games to Duke and UConn (who are in this region) and North Carolina.

    St. John’s Red Storm

    St. John’s enters red-hot, having not trailed for a second in the Big East Tournament, and rolling to regular-season and postseason championships. But the NCAA Tournament committee did the Red Storm no favors by giving them a No. 5 seed, and they would be in a near coin-flip situation as early as the Round of 32 if they play Kansas.

    Their first-round matchup against Northern Iowa is the only game I feel that’s a lock for them to win, even though they are entirely capable of making a deep run.

    Favorites on Upset Alert

    Teams to Save for Later

    Arizona, Florida, Iowa State, Purdue and Virginia are all Elite 8 contenders, at the very least. While no team from this list is in danger of a first-round upset, keep them handy for the later rounds when they are still prohibitive favorites while fewer teams are available to choose from.

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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