2026 NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool Advice: Sweet 16 (Thursday)
If you followed our NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool advice for each day of the NCAA Tournament thus far, you are likely still alive and competing entering the Sweet 16. As with any survivor pool, it takes a lot of strategy and a little bit of luck to win, and we strategized our way through avoiding picking Florida, as that was always a team we wanted to identify for later use. But outside of Iowa’s upset of the Gators on Sunday, March Madness has thus far been devoid of huge upsets.
- NCAA Tournament Odds
- NCAA Tournament Pick’Em Contest
- NCAA Tournament March Madness Bracket Optimizer
- NCAA Tournament Betting Trends
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
2026 NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool Advice: Sweet 16 (Thursday)
Now is the time to buckle down and really go through your predictions for how the rest of the NCAA Tournament will play out, as there are still four picks left to be made, but just 16 teams to choose from.
Throughout the tournament, one has to make eight picks:
- Two for the First Round (one for each day)
- Two for the Second Round (one for each day)
- One for the Sweet 16
- One for the Elite Eight
- One for the Final Four
- One for the National Championship.
Starting with the Sweet 16, we rank all four Thursday games in order of most to least confident and provide a short narrative for each. Be sure to check back for Friday’s NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool advice column before making your Sweet 16 selections.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their Sweet 16 matchups on Thursday. Be sure to check out the folks at PoolGenius as well for their NCAA survivor data.
Sweet 16 Odds
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Best Sweet 16 Survivor Picks (Ranked in Order)
Purdue Boilermakers
If you avoided using Purdue in its Round of 32 win over Miami, this sets up as an even better spot to get behind the Boilermakers when facing Texas. Texas had lost five of six games before its three-game winning streak clinched a spot in the Sweet 16. But the Longhorns are just 2-5 SU against teams ranked in the KenPom top-20 this season, and I expect Purdue’s experience will be too much for their tired legs.
Purdue is D-1's most efficient offense and figures to have several advantages over a Longhorns defense that allowed 88.8 points per game in losses during a late-season 1-5 stretch.
I'm backing the Boilermakers confidently because of a defense that's coming off one of its most underrated performances of the season. Miami entered the Round of 32 ranked in the 99th percentile in unguarded catch-and-shoot rate, but Purdue held it to just 26.3 percent from 3-point range on a limited 19 attempts.
It's also hard to overlook that Purdue returned 86 percent of its scoring from last year's Sweet 16 team.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Ranking Nebraskagion second on this list does not mean I expect the Cornhuskers to have the second-best chance of winning. But no matter who wins the Illinois-Houston matchup in the bottom half of the South Region, Nebraska is surely to be an underdog, making this the likely last chance you’ll confidently pick them going forward.
This play does not come without risks, as Iowa head coach Ben McCollum clearly is able to come up with masterful game plans, like the one he used to take down No. 1 seed Florida. The Hawkeyes also beat the Cornhuskers 57-52 at home this season, and used a slowdown strategy to beat Clemson (the 53 possessions it had in that game marked the slowest pace in an NCAA Tournament game since 2014). But I expect Cornhuskers head coach Fred Hoiberg will find ways to speed Iowa up, and make it pay for a slow-down style if it can build an early lead.
Houston Cougars
The winner of the Houston-Illinois Sweet 16 tilt will likely be the heavy favorite to advance to the Final Four from this region. So while part of me listing Houston this low is because of a desire to save it until next round, Illinois’ No. 2 adjusted offensive efficiency should give Kelvin Sampson’s defense fits. The Cougars get the slight edge, though, with this practically being a home game with the matchup being played in Houston.
Arizona Wildcats
Nothing that Arizona has done has me wavering from the Wildcats as my national championship pick. Thus, you should be saving Arizona for as long as you can, and only using the Wildcats in this round out of desperation if you have no other options.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.