3 Best MLB Bets for Friday (6/13)
We’ve got a full slate tonight in the MLB. Therefore, I reviewed many MLB betting systems and trends, and provided my three best MLB bets below.
Let’s have a huge start to the weekend tonight.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Friday’s Best MLB Bets: Betting Systems & Trends
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Off a RL Loss
The “Off a RL Loss” system has earned a 1.6% return on investment (ROI) on its last 759 bets. It’s won 42% of the time, but has still been profitable during that stretch.
Ultimately, the system looks for teams with a Moneyline of +100 odds or higher. It also examines teams that played the day before and failed to cover the spread in their previous game.
The San Francisco Giants had a 7-2 lead against the Rockies last night but choked away a massive lead and lost in the ninth inning. This system is looking to back the Giants and fade the Dodgers at a price tag of +143.
With Logan Webb on the mound, it’s a quality look.
Logan Webb has allowed a .134 ISO and wOBA of .301 to his last 133 batters. He’s also struck out more than 27% of those batters and has induced 62% of ground balls. Of course, the Dodgers have one of the best lineups in baseball. But typically, good pitching overpowers good hitting.
On the other hand, Yoshinobu Yamamoto will take the mound for the Dodgers. He’s been just as good over the last 30 days. However, there is some concern about the fact that he has walked 15.4% of his previous 52 right-handed batters. The Giants will likely have six righties in the lineup. If Yamamoto gives free passes, that could be the difference in this likely low-scoring game.
Back the Giants.
Pick: Giants Moneyline (+143)
RUN_UNDER_OV-0_0
This system has generated a 3.8% ROI over its last 1,728 bets. It’s won 70% of the time and looks for players to go under in the runs category. Ultimately, the player must have hit the over fewer than 20% of the time and not hit the over in any of the last five regular-season games.
Jac Caglianone has just a .053 ISO and wOBA of .254 against righties to start his Major League career. He also hasn’t walked against a righty yet. Instead, he’s hit 53.3% of ground balls and only 6.7% of fly balls.
Caglianone goes up against Luis Severino, who has limited his first 172 left-handed batters to a .133 ISO and 18.4% of fly balls. Severino will likely be able to induce some ground balls against Caglianone.
Consider Caglianone to go under 0.5 hits tonight.
Pick: Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 Hits (-185)
Fade the Sox ML
Fading the White Sox has been profitable this season, despite Chicago hitting big plus-money bets several times this season. Fading the White Sox has already added a 2.7% ROI and has won 67% of the time.
Tonight should only help the numbers.
The White Sox will pitch Adrian Houser. He’s a veteran starter who hasn’t had much success in the MLB lately. This season, he’s performed better. However, he’s allowed a .188 ISO and wOBA of .336 to his first 53 lefties. The Rangers should have at least four lefties in the lineup, which should help.
On the other hand, Jacob Webb could get the call for the Rangers. He’s struggled against righties this season. However, he’ll face a White Sox lineup that has hit a .132 ISO and wOBA of .317 with 22.4% of strikeouts. As long as Webb can limit walks, he’ll pitch fine against Chicago.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline (-190)