3 Best MLB Bets for Friday (6/6)
Let’s stay hot with our best MLB bets from our MLB betting systems and trends with three plays to begin the weekend. Here are our top picks and predictions based on MLB trends and systems.
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Friday’s Best MLB Bets: Betting Systems & Trends
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Runs under 73%
The “Runs under 73%” system has added a 2.1% return on investment (ROI) with a 66% win percentage. It has generated more than 87 units of profit on 4,078 bets and continues to rise.
This system identifies players who are underperforming in the runs category. Ultimately, the player must have a cost of -250 to +1000 and have hit the over in less than 27% of the time. In addition, the same player can’t have scored at least one run in two of the last five games, three of the last 10 games, four of the last 15 games and six of the last 20 games.
Michael Harris fits the script. Ultimately, he’s hit a .000 ISO and wOBA of .242 against his last 60 righties. He’s also hit 54.3% of ground balls over the last month against righties and has earned fewer than 20% of fly balls.
Tonight, he’ll go up against Hayden Birdsong of the San Francisco Giants, who has struck out nearly 23% of lefties in the last 30 days. He’s also added 26.1% of whiffs against lefties and has earned close to 12% swinging strikes, without giving up many walks.
It’ll be hard for Harris to even get on base tonight.
Pick: Michael Harris Under 0.5 Runs (-180)
MLB CLE Unders – Totals
The “MLB CLE Unders – Totals” system strictly looks for Cleveland games to go under the total. It’s self-explanatory and simple, but it has also generated an ROI of 8.2% over its last 166 bets.
Colton Gordon will take the mound for the Astros tonight. He’s a left-handed pitcher who has struggled against right-handed hitters since being called up. However, he’ll take on a Guardians offense that has hit a .081 ISO and wOBA of .266 against lefties over the last 30 days. Cleveland’s projected lineup has struck out more than 29% of the time against lefties and has six batters hitting an ISO of no better than .059 against lefties. Gordon should be able to navigate around this Guardians lineup.
On the other hand, Logan Allen will pitch for the Guardians. He’s held his first 174 righties to a .120 ISO, giving up only 22% of line drives. Ultimately, the Astros have the better offense against lefties. They’ll likely win this game and score more runs. But the Astros aren’t patient at the plate and have walked only 3% of the time against lefties over the last month. The best way to attack Allen is by being patient, especially since he’s walked more than 11% of batters this season.
Therefore, consider the under in tonight’s Cleveland-Houston matchup.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (-118)
MLB +1.5 Run Line – Plus Money
Whenever there’s a team at +1.5 at plus-money, you’ve got to take the gamble. It has worked out well over this system’s last 307 bets.
The “MLB +1.5 Run Line – Plus Money” system has achieved a 13.1% ROI and boasts a 50% win percentage, resulting in more than 40 units of profit.
Tonight, the Rockies are +1.5 (+170) against the New York Mets. Kodai Senga is on the mound. While his ERA numbers are good, he’s allowed more than 20% of walks to his last 59 lefties. Senga has been far from perfect for the Mets.
Meanwhile, Antonio Senzatela will take the hill for the Rockies. He’s limited his last 58 righties to a .113 ISO and has kept his last 63 lefties to just 17.3% of fly balls. The Mets just lost a heartbreaker to the Dodgers and might not even have Francisco Lindor in the lineup tonight.
It’s worth taking a shot on the Rockies after they swept the Marlins earlier this week.
Pick: Rockies +1.5 (+170)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: