3 Best NFL Bets for Week 11 (2025)
This week’s slate includes many exciting games, including a matchup in Madrid between the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins. I found one major play in that game using our betting systems. In addition, I’ve added a couple of other NFL bets using the top premium betting system picks for Week 11. Enjoy!
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Week 11’s Best NFL Betting System & Trends Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Player Receptions Unders Strategy
Over the last year, the “Player Receptions Under Strategy” system has added more than 74 units of profit over its last 2,506 bets. While there’s been month-to-month volatility, in the long term, this system has been very profitable.
To fit the system, the player has to have a cost of -249 to +1100 for their receptions prop. Ultimately, that’s pretty much every single receiver in the NFL. That said, if you’re going to pick just one out of the 134 system plays, consider Ja’Tavion Sanders to go below 2.5 receptions at -175 odds.
Sanders hit five receptions last week against the Saints, but he’s in line to face an Atlanta defense that ranks first in passing yards allowed, first in pass completions, first in receiving yards and first in receptions allowed.
Don’t expect Sanders to get many targets. He’s added no more than two targets in three of his last five games.
Pick: Ja’Tavion Sanders Under 2.5 Receptions (-175)
Rushing Yards Unders for Road Players
The “Rushing Yards Unders for Road Players” system has earned 21.07 units of profit over its last 290 bets. It’s won more than 58% of the time and has a 7.27% return on investment (ROI) during that stretch.
To qualify, a player must be on the underdog team on the road in the regular season.
Zach Charbonnet has seen no more than 35% of the snaps over the last two games. He broke out for a 30-yard rush against Arizona, but had no previous games with a rush of more than 15 yards.
This weekend, he’ll take on a Rams defense ranked first in longest rush and fourth in yards per carry. Don’t expect Charbonnet to break out for a big one. Take his under.
Pick: Zach Charbonnet Under 32.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Plus Money Passing Touchdowns Overs
This last system looks for quarterbacks to go over in passing touchdowns. Marcus Mariota will start for the Commanders in Madrid against the Miami Dolphins. Ultimately, the Dolphins rank 21st in passing touchdowns allowed this season. Mariota added two passing touchdowns against the Lions in his last game.
Mariota had the most air yards of any game this season when he faced the Lions last. He also gained 9.6 yards per pass attempt against the Lions. He’s starting to get more comfortable and should help the Commanders stay competitive against a suddenly good Dolphins team.
Let’s trust Mariota to throw a couple of touchdowns at +118 odds.