3 Best NFL Bets for Week 5 (2025)
The betting systems page just got even better. The dashboard now shows streaks, win percentage and return on investment (ROI) of every system. You can even filter it based on preferences. Below, I’ll show you some of the most profitable premium betting systems and NFL bets for Week 5.
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Week 5’s Best NFL Betting System & Trends Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Unders (Away)
The Miami Dolphins are headed on the road to face the Carolina Panthers. Typically, when on the road, Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t perform very well. In fact, he’s thrown for fewer than 223 passing yards in each of his last eight games. And to make matters worse, his top target, Tyreek Hill, is out for the season after suffering a knee injury on Monday.
In addition, Tagovailoa has also added no more than 177 passing yards in three of the first four games this season. The Dolphins are viewed as one of the worst teams in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Panthers are probably a better defense than they’ve shown so far this season.
Let’s take Tagovailoa to add below 222.5 passing yards. He’s gone under in eight straight games and is 9-2 with a profit of 6.09 units in his last 11 road games.
Pick: Tua Tagovaioa Under 222.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Receptions Unders for Calvin Ridley
The Tennessee Titans will battle the Arizona Cardinals on the road this weekend. Ultimately, Cam Ward and the Titans’ offense haven’t clicked at all this season. The Titans are 0-4 and are now heavy underdogs against the Cardinals.
That said, the under in Calvin Ridley’s receptions has gone 15-9 Ridley in the last 24 games. Ridley’s unders have hit a 14.2% ROI and a profit of 3.4 units. Beyond that, he’s hit this line in six consecutive games.
Wildly enough, the lead receiver for the Titans has picked up just three receptions in the last two games combined. Ridley’s snap count dipped to 54% last week, and he saw only three targets in the entire game against Houston.
Grab Ridley to hit the under on his 3.5 receptions line for Week 5.
Pick: Calvin Ridley Under 3.5 Receptions (-150)
Rushing Yards Under Props (≤20% Over Hit Rate L5)
Lastly, take a look at the “Rushing Yards Under Props (≤20% Over Hit Rate L5)” system. It’s added 13.67 units and an ROI of 10.8% through its last 126 bets. It has also won 64% of the time and is on a five-game win streak.
To qualify for this system, the player must have hit the over in no more than one of the last five games and no more than two of the previous 10 games.
We’ll stay in the Cardinals-Titans game here. Emari Demercado fits the script. He’s one of the two running backs for the Cardinals this weekend. However, the sportsbooks and analysts believe Michael Carter will be the lead back. If that’s the case, Demercado won’t get enough reps to hit 20 rushing yards.
Let’s take his under using this red-hot system.