5 Super Bowl LV Prop Bets Our Projections Love (2021)

We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the prop bet odds from PointsBet Sportsbook to give you the best prop bet picks. Here are our top five picks for Super Bowl LV.

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Patrick Mahomes (KC – QB): UNDER 326.5 Passing Yards

Though Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the odds-on favorite to take home the Super Bowl MVP award, that does not mean that our projections like his chances of surpassing his projected yardage total. Mahomes has averaged 293.4 YPG in his seven career playoff starts. While he did not appear limited by a turf toe injury against Buffalo, the fact remains that he will still feel its lingering effects two weeks later during the Super Bowl.

More concerning than his physical health is that Mahomes will be without three starting offensive linemen against the Buccaneers. Pro Bowl left tackle Eric Fisher was ruled out for the Super Bowl after suffering a torn Achilles tendon in last week’s AFC Championship game. In addition to Fisher’s injury, the Chiefs have been without starting right tackle Mitchell Schwartz since Week 6, and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif opted out of the season before it even started. That could be problematic when facing a Buccaneers defense which tied for fourth in the league in the regular-season with 48 sacks and who had five sacks in the NFC Championship game against the Green Bay Packers.

Mahomes has not thrown for 327 or more yards in five of his last six games. His 325 yards against Buffalo were the most he has thrown since Week 14 against the Dolphins. Tampa Bay allowed just 246.6 YPG through the air in the regular season. Also, there is the possibility for game script to call for fewer pass attempts from Mahomes since they are projected to win the game.

Not only are our projections lower on Patrick Mahomes, but four-time Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady’s projected total is too high as well. Brady has averaged 315.3 YPG in his nine Super Bowl starts, but those numbers are a little inflated due to the 466 and 505-yard performances against the Falcons and Eagles. Brady has thrown for less than 300 yards in five of the nine Super Bowls and is a good bet to do so once again at age 43.

Tom Brady (TB – QB): UNDER 302.5 Passing Yards

Not only are our projections lower on Patrick Mahomes, but four-time Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady’s projected total is too high as well. Brady has averaged 315.3 YPG in his nine Super Bowl starts, but those numbers are a little inflated due to the 466 and 505-yard performances against the Falcons and Eagles. Brady has thrown for less than 300 yards in five of the nine Super Bowls and is a good bet to do so once again at age 43.

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Brady attempted 41 passes and threw for 345 yards in their 27-24 Week 12 loss to the Chiefs. However, Brady was picked off twice in that game, so perhaps a more conservative game plan from Bruce Arians is in order, as three interceptions from Brady nearly did them in against Green Bay last week. In that Week 12 matchup, the Buccaneers lost the time of possession battle 36:47-23:13. Thus, Tampa Bay felt more of a sense of urgency that they needed to score every time they touched the ball, which likely led to a more pass-happy attack. With as dangerous as Kansas City’s offense is, it would behoove the Buccaneers to keep them off the field as much as possible. Thus, a more balanced rushing attack to go with Brady’s occasional deep shots should lead to a lower yardage total from the GOAT.

Travis Kelce (KC – TE): UNDER 102.5 Receiving Yards

Travis Kelce caught eight passes for 82 yards in the regular-season matchup between these teams. His 10.3 YPC average was his third-lowest since Week 3, suggesting that the Buccaneers were successful in limiting his ability for yards after the catch. Tampa Bay’s linebacking tandem of Devin White and Lavonte David are two of the league’s fastest and best at the position in pass coverage.

There have been 49 100-yard receiving games in Super Bowl history, and just three have come from tight ends. In last year’s Super Bowl, Kelce was held to just six catches for 43 yards and a touchdown. Thus, history says this projected total is too high even for a player of Kelce’s caliber.

Tyreek Hill (KC – WR): UNDER 91.5 Receiving Yards

No cornerback on the planet can keep up with “The Cheetah,” Tyreek Hill. However, Tampa Bay cornerback Carlton Davis has done an outstanding job of limiting the big-play ability of two of the game’s best receivers in the last two rounds of the playoffs. He will be tasked with the assignment of not allowing Hill any game-breaking plays.

Davis held Packers wide receiver Davante Adams to 67 yards on nine catches (7.4 YPC) despite Adams getting 15 targets. The round before, he held New Orleans’ Michael Thomas catch-less on four targets.

Hill will be a popular play for bettors wagering on prop bets considering he turned in one of the all-time best performances for a wide receiver in their first meeting with the Buccaneers. He totaled 269 yards on 13 catches and three touchdowns and became just the third wide receiver ever with 200 or more receiving yards in a single quarter. One can expect Hill will be the primary focus of Tampa Bay’s pass defense, and Todd Bowles and the rest of the Buccaneers defensive coaching staff would be foolish not to change things up and take away Hill’s deep routes. Carlton Davis often had no help in slowing down Hill in the first matchup, so expect him to get plenty of help this time around.

Thus, of the other three projections mentioned so far, the under on Hill’s receiving yards is arguably the most contrarian play but one that we like to cash.

Rob Gronkowski (TB – TE): UNDER 31.5 Receiving Yards

When we mentioned there had been three 100-yard receiving games by tight ends in Super Bowl history, Rob Gronkowski owns one of those 100-yard games when he totaled 116 yards on nine catches against the Eagles in Super Bowl LII. Perhaps Gronkowski is saving his best for the biggest game, but the fact is he has not totaled 32 or more receiving yards four straight games. In fact, he has more than 32 yards just once in the last seven games. In the three playoff games this season, Gronkowski has had just one target in two of those games.

By comparison, fellow tight end Cameron Brate has seen 16 targets compared to Gronkowski’s seven in their three preseason games and has outgained him 149-43 in terms of yardage. While the Brady-to-Gronkowski connection has fared well in previous Super Bowls, do not back on much usage out of Gronkowski this year.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.