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Arkansas State vs. Troy: College Football Week 6 Odds & Picks (2023)

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This article’s focus is to take a look at betting totals in a more nuanced approach. Instead of being like, “The over/under is 65 points. Team A scored 35 points per game (PPG), and Team B scored 40 PPG. I’ll take the over.” We will use several advanced statistics and techniques that might be overlooked in the betting landscape. Here are all of my picks for the week. And below we dive into Arkansas State vs. Troy.

College Football Week 6 Totals Odds, Picks & Predictions: Arkansas State vs. Troy

Overview

The average over/under total for a college football game is 57.5 points, regardless of the teams, pace, weather, etc. The common thought process for most bettors and fans will be to look at the red zone statistics and see if you have two efficient teams who convert into a lot of TDs. While it is a fine thought process, it is incredibly archaic. The difference between the best team in the red zone and the worst team in the red zone isn’t that significant because you are only dealing with 20 yards of variance.

Also, looking at efficiency on points on a per-game basis assumes each game will be the same, which is entirely false. You need to look at it from an opportunity standpoint with more variance. We will use several advanced statistics to measure how successful the game environment is: PPO (Points Per Opportunity), IsoPPP (explosive plays), Pace, Rush Rate, Projected PPO, and Projected PPO difference.

PPO, also known as finishing drives, is a statistic that extends the “Redzone” from the 20-yard line to the 40-yard line. An incredible 78 percent of a college football game points are scored inside the opponent’s 40-yard lines. I know you are saying,” Well, yeah, that’s not surprising.” The great thing is that it’s a predictable point of emphasis. We can predict PPO based on the offensive/defensive matchup.

Essentially, you can look at a total and say, “The projected PPO needed for this total is X, and that is a difference of +/- what we need.” This will determine whether or not to lean over or under on a total. Now, the other 22% of points scored are volatile, but that’s where IsoPPP (explosive plays) come in. We can simplify betting over/under by looking at it from a numbers-needed standpoint and building the game script with other advanced statistics.

Glossary

  • PPO (Points Per Opportunity): Points scored on each drive inside an opponent’s 40-yard line
  • IsoPPP: Explosive plays typically over 20 yards for passing plays and over 15 yards for rushing plays
  • PPO Projected: Projected opportunity points that are matchup-adjusted
  • PPO Projected Total Difference: Projected opportunity points difference needed to reach the total. Positive differences would lean over, and negative differences lean under
  • PROE: Pass Rate over Expectancy
  • Pace of Play: Plays/sec a higher ranking means a faster pace of play
  • Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average pass rate is 40%)
  • Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average Pass rate is 60%)

Arkansas State @ Troy over 52.5

  • Average projected Off IsoPPP, Standard Downs IsoPPP, and Passing Downs IsoPPP matchups for both teams
  • Projected PPO combined points 47.6
  • Projected PPO difference +7.1 points
  • Arkansas State 42nd in Pace
  • Troy 36th in Pace
  • Arkansas State -.001% PROE on Standard Downs (77th)
  • Arkansas State +12.4% PROE on Passing Downs (17th)
  • Troy +7.9% PROE on Standard Downs (27th)
  • Troy +9.1% PROE on Passing Downs (28th)

Here, we have a total that could be crushed by halftime. Both teams play at a high pace and have a high PROE. Even with the IsoPPP matchups being average, the PPO difference is significant. Arkansas State’s QB Jaylen Raynor has turned the entire offense around and has provided a spark that could drive this game script. Expect a lot of passes and a lot of opportunities inside the 40s.

Bet: Arkansas State/Troy over 52.5


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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!