Atlanta Falcons vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds and Game Pick (2020)

Justin Herbert vs. Matt Ryan for the first, and potentially last time, is compelling television. Both teams have underachieved due to questionable personnel decisions, but for one team 2020 will be looked at as something to build on. For the other, a fired head coach and general manager later, the team may be staring at a lengthy rebuild. Let’s dig in. 

	ATL	-1.5 -110	o48.5 -115	-125
JOIN NOW	LAC	+1.5 -110	u48.5 -105	+105

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Overview

Despite being 3-9, this has been an exciting season for the Los Angeles Chargers.  Losing Derwin James before the season even began, all but put the kibosh on their postseason hopes, especially for a team that entered the season committed to starting journeyman Tyrod Taylor at quarterback.  The quarterback decision was a controversial one when they had just spent the sixth overall pick on a blue-chip prospect named Justin Herbert. An injury and a team doctor puncturing Taylor’s lung later, and the Chargers now know they have one of the brightest young talents in the league under center. It has not all been roses for the Chargers as they are indeed 3-9. However, if not for a Derwin James sized hole on their roster, they may have been able to win more of the eight of their 12 contests that were decided by a touchdown or less. The future is bright for the ‘other team’ in Los Angeles. 

The Atlanta Falcons are 4-8 on the season and are all but eliminated from the playoffs. Atlanta has fired both its general manager and head coach this season. Both were long overdue moves for two men that were hurting the team more than helping it. Thomas Dimitroff was a rock star when he first took over the job but his recent draft decisions have set the team back years. Former head coach Dan Quinn took the team to the promised land, but they came up short due to a defensive collapse of epic proportions. That was also when they had one of the sharpest offensive minds in the NFL on staff in current San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. Long time quarterback and former league MVP Matt Ryan also finds himself on the hot seat, as there have no doubt been internal discussions about bringing in some strong competition for Ryan, if not his outright successor. The 35-year-old signal-caller has been declining for the last couple of years and needs a strong defense to help him be competitive at this point of his career. The Falcons do not have one and are poised to finish their third straight season with a losing record. 

Trends

• Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight contests against teams with losing records 
• Chargers are 0-6 ATS in their last six contests overall
• Under is 5-1 in the Falcons last six contests overall
• Over is 7-2 in the Chargers last nine contests overall 

Prop Bets

Keenan Allen over 73.5 receiving yards (-115)
Keenan Allen has been enjoying one of the best seasons of his career with Justin Herbert under center and currently leads the NFL in receptions. He is 10th in the league with 923 receiving yards. He has been a little inconsistent, but most of his down games have come when he has gone up against the top corners in the league. Allen has gone over 73.5 receiving yards in five of his 12 contests on the year. However, four of his last five unders have come against some of Marshon Lattimore, Stephon Gilmore, Xavien Howard, and Tre’Davious White. Atlanta arguably has the weakest cornerback room in the NFL, so that should not be a problem this week. 

Allen is averaging 76.9 receiving yards on the year, the third highest mark of his career. Facing one of the weakest cornerback rooms in the league should make this an easy over, but we all know nothing is ever easy. The trends are on his side however, according to TRNDS Sports app, Allen has exceeded 73.5 receiving yards in five of his last six home contests for an average of 108.2 receiving yards per game. The line itself offers minimal value in a vacuum, but when the Falcons defense is factored in, this is a potential multi-unit play. 

Bottom Line

This is going to be one of the more entertaining games of the week from a competitive standpoint. Two teams who are much better than their records indicate will be squaring off in what could turn into a shootout. The -1.5 spread on Atlanta accentuates the small perceived gap between these two teams, and also the difficulty handicappers will have pegging the ATS winner. 

The trends suggest that this is a Falcons play all day, they have covered in seven of their last eight contests against teams with losing records, while the Chargers have failed to cover in each of their last six contests. However, our expert consensus is leaning towards the Chargers being able to cover, with 53 percent tapping Los Angeles as their play. The betting public is 58 percent behind Atlanta. 

Los Angeles definitely has the talent to pull out a win, especially with Julio Jones ruled out, but have not proven capable of consistently navigating the close contests. This is a true toss-up. Sticking the Chargers in a six-point teaser is the preferred course of action, but for those looking for a straight-up lean, Atlanta is the reluctant play. Their defense has been playing much better with Raheem Morris promoted to head boss duties and the Chargers, for all of their talent, just have not been able to cover the spread recently. Falcons are the pick, but keep it to one unit at BetMGM.

Pick: Atlanta Falons -1.5 (-110)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.