Auburn Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats Odds & Game Pick
The #15 Auburn Tigers take on the #8 Kentucky Wildcats in a key battle between the top two teams in the SEC. Kentucky owns a two-game lead on the second-place Tigers with three games left to play. Thus, the Wildcats would clinch the regular season conference championship with a win. An Auburn loss potentially drops them into a three-way tie for second place with LSU and Florida.
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Details
- Opening Line: Kentucky -6.5 (at FanDuel)
- Current Line: Kentucky -6.5
- O/U: 141.5
- Location: Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY
- Start Time: 3:45 PM ET- February 29th, 2020
- Last Meeting: February 1st, 2020- #17 Auburn def. #13 Kentucky 75-66
Overview
The Auburn Tigers (24-4, 11-4 conf) enter this game winners of nine of their last 11 games. However, the two losses in that span are the last two conference road games they played. The Tigers lost at Missouri by 12 and at Georgia by 10. Their other two losses were both on the road in conference, losing by 19 to Alabama and 22 to Florida. The metrics are somewhat conflicted on Auburn. The Tigers rank #5 in the RPI, but #27 in the NET and #44 in strength of schedule. Of the top four SEC teams, Auburn has the least amount of Quadrant 1 wins (three).
It would behoove Auburn to attempt more two-point shots than three-point shots going forward. The Tigers rank 35th in the country shooting 53.3% from two-point range. However, their 30.1% from three-point range ranks 317th in the nation. They are almost equally as bad from the free-throw line, as they rank 290th with a 67.2% clip. With all of those misses from long range comes opportunities for offensive rebounding. Some would say Auburn’s “best offense is a missed shotâ€, as they rebound 35.5% of their own misses (ranks 13th in the country). As good as Auburn is on the offensive glass, they are just as good as keeping opponents from rebounding their own misses. The Tigers rank second in the SEC allowing opponents to rebound just 26.5% of their missed shots.
The Kentucky Wildcats (23-5, 13-2 conf) have quietly played some of the best basketball in the country over the last month. Since January 18th, Kentucky has won 11 of their last 12 games. Their only loss in that span was by nine points at Auburn. The Wildcats rank #18 in both the RPI and the NET. They are hurt most in the metrics by their 92nd ranked strength of schedule and 153rd ranked non-conference strength of schedule.
Kentucky has improved defensively as the season has gone on. They rank in the top 36 in the country in three-point percentage allowed (30.1%), two-point percentage allowed (44.1%), block percentage (14.3%) and effective field goal percentage allowed (44.5%). On the offensive end, they rank third in the SEC in offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage (51.1%). Most impressive is their 79.3% from the free throw line which ranks fourth in the country.
Trends
- Auburn is 3-2 in the last five head-to-head matchups with Kentucky
- Kentucky is 6-4 in the last 10 head-to-head matchups with Auburn
- Auburn is 2-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last six games
- The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in its last seven games
- Kentucky is 10-0 in its last 10 home games against Auburn
- Kentucky is 19-1 in its last 20 home games against Auburn
- Auburn is 2-42 in its 44 all-time, head-to-head road games against Kentucky
- Five of the last seven meetings between Kentucky and Auburn have been decided by 10 points or fewer
Bottom Line
In the first meeting between these two teams, shooting percentages did not determine the outcome. Kentucky shot 40.8% from the field compared to Auburn’s 35.3%. The Wildcats were also better from three-point range, shooting 37.5% compared to Auburn’s 26.1%. The biggest reasons for the Tigers’ nine-point victory were free throws and rebounding. Auburn (33-44 from the line) made nine more free throws than Kentucky (20-24) attempted. In addition, the Tigers won the rebounding battle 42-28, including a 17-6 edge on the offensive glass. Coach John Calipari’s Wildcats could not slow down Auburn’s dribble penetration, and the Tigers seemingly won every 50/50 ball.
Auburn’s home/road splits are worrisome as they enter March. Although they are a perfect 16-0 at home, they are just 4-4 on the road. Auburn is being outscored by an average of 75.4-68.7 in conference road games. Kentucky meanwhile is 15-1 at Rupp Arena. In conference home games, they are outscoring opponents by an average of 74.1-65.7.
The key to this rematch will be Kentucky’s ability to keep Auburn off the offensive boards, and off the free throw line. Look for Kentucky coach John Calipari to play more of the percentages and live with Auburn’s inefficient three-point shooting. The Wildcats are likely to play more zone in an effort to prevent dribble penetration. Kentucky guard Ashton Hagans is one of ten semifinalists for the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year Award. When Kentucky does play man-to-man, look for him to frustrate Auburn’s leading scorer Samir Doughty. Doughty scored 23 points in the first matchup, though 14 of them came at the free-throw line. John Calipari will look to cut off his driving lanes and make him a perimeter shooter.
In all, Kentucky will not relinquish the opportunity to clinch the SEC regular season championship on their home floor. Auburn was the more aggressive team in the first meeting. John Calipari has surely stressed that all week, and will not let his Wildcats get out-worked a second time. Look for the Rupp Arena crowd to buoy their Wildcats to victory, further adding to Auburn’s road woes.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.