Australian Open Semifinals Picks: Elena Rybakina vs. Victoria Azarenka
Entering the Australian Open, No. 5 seed Aryna Sabalenka had the second-best odds to win the tournament, behind World No. 1 Iga Swiatek. Thus, it is no surprise that she won her quarter and earned her spot in her fourth career Grand Slam semifinal (first at the Australian Open).
While Sabalenka’s spot in the semifinals was expected, not many could argue they would have predicted the other three semifinalists. Victoria Azarenka is a former two-time Australian Open champion, but she has not won it since 2013 and had not made it past the quarterfinals in any year since then before this run. Elena Rybakina is also a Grand Slam champion, winning Wimbledon in 2022, but had yet to make it past the third round at the Australian Open before this year. Finally, the most surprising of the four is unseeded Magda Linette (the No. 45 ranked player in the world), who is playing in her first Grand Slam semifinal in her 30th career major.
Read on for our thoughts and predictions for the 2023 Women’s Australian Open semifinals.
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2023 Women’s Australian Open Semifinal Picks & Predictions
(odds via DraftKings)
Elena Rybakina vs. Victoria Azarenka Prediction
While Azarenka is the more seasoned player in Grand Slam experience (two titles, three finals, and three semifinals), just one of those accomplishments happened since 2013. Thus, Rybakina’s 2022 Wimbledon triumph is more prevalent to us entering this match, as the reasons for her success on the grass court are largely carrying over into this tournament.
Rybakina’s first-serve percentage has increased in every match so far this tournament and has become a weapon that few are built to deal with. She punctuated her best service performance with 11 aces in her quarterfinal match against Jelena Ostapenko and cruised to an easy 6-2, 6-4 victory. Those 11 aces were a tournament high, and while Azarenka has some of the best return of serve numbers on the WTA tour, Rybakina’s ability to keep her composure and rise up on the most stressful of points is encouraging entering this match, as she saved seven of eight break points.
While many will back Azarenka based on her 6-4, 6-1 dominance over Jessica Pegula, Rybakina’s straight-set victory over World No. 1 Iga Swiatek should not go unnoticed. Rybakina is 12-1 in her last 13 Grand Slam main draw matches and has covered the game spread in her previous five WTA main draw matches.
We have too much respect for Azarenka to lay the -225 moneyline odds with Rybakina, so taking her to win in three sets provides much better value.
Pick: Rybakina to Win in Three Sets (+320 on DraftKings)
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