Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills Odds and Game Pick (2021)

The Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills enter their Divisional Round matchup as two of the hottest teams in football. Baltimore has won six straight games by an average of 17.3 PPG, while six of Buffalo’s seven straight wins have come by more than ten points. While there are several fascinating matchups on both sides of the ball, the narrative surrounding this game is squarely on the two third-year quarterbacks who just last week got the “playoff monkey” off their backs. While neither Lamar Jackson nor Josh Allen performed well in their playoff starts before this season, both are a main reason why each of their teams is still alive. Which quarterback will once again rise to the challenge and have their team playing next week in the AFC Championship?

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Details

• Opening Lines: DraftKings had the odds open as Bills -2.5; O/U 49.5
• Location: Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
• Start Time: 8:15 pm ET
• Television: NBC
• Last Meeting: December 8, 2019 – Ravens 24, Bills 17

	BAL	+2.5 -110	o50 -110	+117
JOIN NOW	BUF	-2.5 -110	u50 -110	-132

View consensus odds, picks, and matchup notes from top betting experts for the Ravens vs. Bills >>

Overview

The Baltimore Ravens exacted a bit of revenge on the Tennessee Titans for last year’s playoff loss. The Ravens defense put the clamps on Derrick Henry as he rushed for just 40 yards on 18 carries. As a whole, they limited Tennessee’s offense to just 209 yards and outgained them 236-51 on the ground. Baltimore’s success on the ground was no surprise, as they became the first team in NFL history to have three players rush for at least 500 yards and five touchdowns. They will look for similar success against a Bills defense that finished the regular season ranked 17th in stopping the run, allowing 119.6 yards per game on the ground. The most impressive part of Baltimore’s victory last week was that it was the first time in 21 games that they won a game when trailing by 10 or more points. After falling behind 10-0 at the end of the first quarter, Baltimore out-scored Tennessee 20-3 the rest of the way. The 13 points Tennessee scored was their lowest scoring output of the season.

The Buffalo Bills made history against the Indianapolis Colts last week. They became the first team in playoff history to win a game after allowing more than 450 yards of total offense and not forcing a single turnover. The Colts instilled a great game plan that saw them hold the ball for more than 34 minutes, which in turn kept Buffalo’s high-powered offense off the field. However, the Colts did not capitalize on enough of their drives, and head coach Frank Reich’s decision to eschew a field goal attempt and go for it on fourth down deep in Buffalo’s territory ended up backfiring. Buffalo received a bit of bad news that Zack Moss is out for the remainder of the season after suffering an ankle injury last week. Buffalo called 35 passes and 21 run plays last week, with Josh Allen responsible for 11 carries. Another concern for the Bills entering this game is the lack of pressure they were able to apply on Philip Rivers. They ended the game with zero sacks and just one hit on the quarterback.

Trends

• The Bills are 6-0 SU in their last six home games.
• Buffalo is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games.
• The under is 5-1 in Baltimore’s last six road games.
• The Ravens have been leading at halftime in five of their last six games.

Bottom Line

When these two teams met in December last year, it was a defensive struggle in which neither team totaled more than 260 yards. The Bills held Baltimore to just 3.6 yards per carry, while Josh Allen completed just 43.6% of his passes. It is fair to say that one can throw all of the stats from last year’s game out the window as these teams look vastly different from a year ago.

Baltimore has transitioned rookie J.K. Dobbins into their primary running back towards the second half of the season. He has scored a touchdown in seven straight games and has not been held to less than 4.0 YPC in that span. Meanwhile, Josh Allen has benefitted from more inventive play-calling from offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and the presence of wide receiver Stefon Diggs this year. Diggs became the first receiver in franchise history to lead the league in receptions and yards. 

While the injury to Zack Moss is a big loss for Buffalo, it likely does not hurt them much this week as they were expected to use a pass-heavy attack against the Baltimore defense. The Bills have thrown for 315 YPG over the past seven games and likely want no part of the Ravens front that just held Derrick Henry to 2.2 YPC. Josh Allen attempted 35 passes when the team held the ball for just 25 minutes last week, so anywhere from 45 to 50 pass attempts is likely this week. Take a look at the following tweet for an indication of how Buffalo may attack Baltimore this week.

The Bills have had a lot of experience facing running quarterbacks this year after playing against Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, and Ryan Tannehill. The bad news is, except for Tagovailoa, the other three all had success on the ground. Murray, Wilson, and Tannehill combined for 187 yards and three touchdowns on 21 carries. However, the fact that their defense has had to contend with so many mobile quarterbacks should make it easier to instill a game plan to slow down Lamar Jackson. 

While the Ravens have won six straight games, just two of those wins have come against teams with more than six wins on the season. “A win is a win,” so they say, but the fact that Baltimore was able to score just 20 points on Tennessee’s 24th-ranked scoring defense last week is concerning. 

Buffalo has evolved a lot as a team this season, and it will show this week against the Ravens. When the Bills played the AFC’s elite like the Chiefs earlier in the season, they tried using a ball-control style of offense to keep the other team’s weapons off the field. Now, Buffalo has the confidence in their offense that they can out-score anyone, and that mentality will be on full display with how they call this game. The last time Baltimore was challenged with 40+ pass attempts, they allowed 42 points to the Browns. Look for Buffalo to be the aggressor this week, which will pay off in a trip to the AFC Championship.

Pick: Bills -2.5, OVER 50

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