Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds and Game Pick (2020)
Amazingly, after opening at -4, the Baltimore Ravens have seen the odds reversed and now sit at +1. Yes, Baltimore is the underdog against Indianapolis. Baltimore is still one of the top teams in the league, but bettors now see them as a good team rather than an elite team to tap on an almost weekly basis. This includes the early window sharps, as a line reversal like this would be impossible otherwise. It should be interesting to watch this one play out.
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BAL
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+1
-115
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o47.5
-115
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-110
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IND
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-1
-105
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u47.5
-105
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-110
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Overview
The Baltimore Ravens faced more adversity in Week 8, and need to get back to what made them one of the most dangerous teams in the league. As Lamar Jackson suggested in his post-game press conference, the Ravens likely beat the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers in Lamar does not turn the ball over a stunning four times. Ravens have refused to use the regular season as a training ground for their young receivers, and as a result, they are still not equipped, or ready, to play from behind. This is why it was Willie Snead who was targeted in the end zone on the final play of a potential game-winning drive. Now 5-2 on the season, the Ravens will be looking to win out in an attempt to win the AFC North.
The Indianapolis Colts sit at 5-2 on the season despite some uneven play from Philip Rivers. Yet to be truly tested this season, the Colts should likely be 7-0 as their losses have come to the Jacksonville Jaguars (their only win of the season) and the Cleveland Browns. We will find out a lot about what the Colts are made of over the next four weeks, as they have the Titans, the Steelers, and the Titans, as follow-ups to the defending AFC Champions. Their two matchups against the Titans will likely decide the fate of the AFC South.
Trends
- Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last eight contests as an underdog
- Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last five contests as a favorite
- Under is 5-1 in Ravens last six contests against the AFC
- Over is 5-1 in Colts last six contests against the AFC
Prop Bets
J.K. Dobbins over 55.5 rushing yards (-115)
J.K. Dobbins exploded against a tough Steelers run defense and should be able to clear 55.5 rushing yards with relative ease. Mark Ingram will be sidelined for Week 9, and Dobbins undoubtedly earned more of his coaching staff’s trust with his efficient 113 rushing yards on 7.5 yards per carry. Indianapolis has allowed 79.9 rushing yards per game this season and allowed four runners to cross 56 rushing yards in their seven contests this season (Joe Mixon narrowly missed the mark with 54 rushing yards). This is despite being 5-2 Tap Dobbins as a one unit play thanks to talent, opportunity, and opponent.
Bottom Line
The line movement for this game is concerning. I am still a big Ravens believer, but the movement on the point spread suggests that I may be thinking more with my heart than with my head. Savvy bettors likely saw the Ravens as road favorites as a trap line and acted accordingly. Still, the movement is unprecedented for a team that opened the season as the favorites to win the Super Bowl.
This movement does have something to do with their play as of late but is also correlated to the Ravens having multiple starters at risk of, or being ruled out for Week 9. All-Pro tackle Ronnie Stanley was lost for the year last week, Mark Ingram will miss the game, and Marlon Humphrey tested positive for COVID and will also miss the game. Humphrey contracting the virus means his close contacts are all questionable for Week 9. This means that the Ravens will not find out whether or not they will have star rookie linebacker Patrick Queen and starting safety DeShon Elliott against the Colts until late Saturday afternoon. Linebackers Malik Harrison, Tyus Bowser, and L.J. Fort will all also be awaiting news on their fates for Week 9.
The Colts also had a scare on Thursday, but Quenton Nelson and Michael Pittman Jr. were allowed to return to practice after the two starters were deemed not to be high-risk contacts of the Colts staffer who tested positive. This uncertainty combined with the Ravens defined injuries, helps to explain the crazy shift in odds.
2020. We are getting to the point where we cannot discuss any game without checking in not only on injuries but on the reserve/COVID list as well. The Ravens would be easy favorites for this contest if healthy but all of this uncertainty makes the Colts, or at least made the Colts stand out as having potential value. With that said, it is not like the Colts are fully healthy, as receivers T.Y. Hilton, Parris Campbell, and Marcus Johnson are all expected to miss the game.
I will likely be fading this game altogether if all of the Ravens players mentioned above are not cleared on Saturday, but if they are, which is expected, the Ravens will be an easy play. We could very well see Baltimore listed as favorites by Sunday morning, so take the -1 at BetMGM and run. The Colts will need to prove it against a good team before inspiring any confidence to take them against one of the league’s best.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.