Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans Odds and Game Pick (2021)
The Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans will meet for the second straight year in the playoffs, while their Wild Card round game is their third meeting in the last two years. The Titans have won the last two meetings by a combined score of 58-36, as Derrick Henry has run for an average of 164 yards per game in the two victories. The Ravens and Titans were the league’s two best rushing teams this year, and plenty of fireworks are expected in this one. Can Lamar Jackson win his first playoff start in three tries, or will the Titans continue their dominance over the Ravens?
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Details
- Opening Lines: DraftKings had the odds open as Ravens -4.5; O/U 54.5
- Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
- Start Time: 1:05 pm ET
- Television: ABC/ESPN
- Last Meeting: November 22, 2020 – Titans 30, Ravens 24 OT
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BAL
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-3
-117
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o54.5
-113
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-180
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TEN
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+3
-105
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u54.5 -108
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+155
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View consensus odds, picks, and matchup notes from top betting experts for the Ravens vs. Titans >>
Overview
The Baltimore Ravens enter the postseason on a five-game winning streak, and just one win in that span was by less than 14 points. They have covered the spread in six straight games, and their offense has averaged 37.2 PPG over the last five games. The Ravens were the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year, but they would perhaps perform better with less pressure as the No. 5 seed this year. While Tennessee’s second-ranked rushing attack is focused mainly around Derrick Henry, Baltimore uses more of a committee approach with three players who totaled at least 700 yards rushing this year. Lamar Jackson led the way with 1,005 rushing yards on the season, and in doing so, became the first quarterback in NFL history to have multiple seasons with at least 1,000 yards rushing. Rookie J.K. Dobbins also started to separate himself from the rest of the running back committee by the end of the regular season. He is coming off a career-best 160-yard effort against the Bengals and has scored at least one touchdown in six straight games.
The Tennessee Titans are also an explosive offense and are one of five teams that averaged more than 30 PPG this season. They are also one of the best teams against the spread, as they are 20-5-1 ATS when Ryan Tannehill is under center since the start of last season. The Titans are 3-2 SU as underdogs this season and proved they can beat the best teams in the league regularly. Tennessee played eight games against playoff teams this season, winning four of them. The Titans’ most glaring weakness all season has been their inability to pressure the quarterback. Tennessee finished the regular season with 17 sacks, which is the least ever from a playoff team over a 16-game regular season. By comparison, only four teams have ever finished a 16-game regular season with 16 or fewer sacks.
Trends
- In the last seven playoff games Baltimore has played in, the underdog is 7-0 ATS.
- The over is 7-1 in Tennessee’s last eight games.
- The Ravens are 12-2 SU in their last 14 road games.
Bottom Line
There is an adage in football that it is tough to beat a team three times in one season. While this is not the third meeting of the Ravens and Titans this season, it is the third time they will have faced each other in a 365-day span. Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is too good of a coach to be beaten a third straight time, and I trust him to devise a game plan that puts them in a better position to win this time around.
The Titans beat the Ravens 30-24 in overtime in Week 11, but many forget that Baltimore held a 21-10 lead midway through the third quarter. Many would have predicted that getting a running team like Tennessee in a big hole would make winning that much easier. Still, the fact that Tennessee was able to come back is a testament to Ryan Tannehill’s development. However, head coach Mike Vrabel has proven to be cautious with Tannehill in the postseason, as he attempted an average of just 20 passes in three playoff starts last year.
Running the ball early and often with Derrick Henry is not the worst idea, but at some point, a one-dimensional playoff offense will catch up to Tennessee. Baltimore’s eighth-ranked run defense is unlikely to prevent Henry from rushing for 100 yards, but their sixth-ranked pass defense can limit the Titans’ big plays in the passing game.
When Tennessee beat Baltimore earlier this season, the Ravens were in the midst of a mid-season funk losing four of five games. Though they have beaten just one playoff team over the last five weeks, the way they have dismantled their opponents of late should give them confidence that they can be just as dominant as their 14-2 team from a year ago.
Lamar Jackson has completed just 51.1% of his passes and has thrown three interceptions in two playoff losses thus far in his career. Expect him to play much better in his third playoff start, if not for any other reason than they had to battle for the last month and a half to reach the playoffs this year, while last year they coasted to the playoffs and had a week off before playing their first playoff game.
Another adage in football is that a good running game and defense travels, allowing teams to be successful no matter where they play. While the Ravens possess both of those things, the Titans only possess one, which will be the difference this time around.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.