Best Bet for the World Series Game 4: Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves
Coming into Game 3 of the World Series, the Atlanta Braves had the longest active streak of any National League team without a no-hitter, as Kent Mercker threw their last no-hitter in April of 1994. However, the Braves came within six outs of ending that streak in their biggest game of the season to date, as five pitchers combined to throw a two-hitter in their 2-0 victory. Ian Anderson’s no-hitter through five innings was tied for Atlanta’s third-longest no-hit bid in Braves postseason history. But as ESPN Stats & Info pointed out, his removal from the game at that point was also historic.
After cashing our first three plays of the World Series, here is my best bet for Saturday’s Game 4. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
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YTD: 200-164-8 (+19.52 units)
Astros-Braves UNDER 8.5 runs (-110)
Making a wager on tonight’s Game 4 is a difficult one, given that we do not know much about each team’s pitching plans, other than the fact that Zack Greinke is starting (or opening) for the Astros. Many trends make it tempting to take Atlanta’s moneyline, as they are 6-0 in their six playoff games at Truist Park and have won 11 of their last 12 games there. Last night’s win also snapped Atlanta’s five-game home losing streak in the World Series. However, Atlanta is going with a bullpen game seemingly for the next two nights, and since their bullpen ranked 13th in the majors in fWAR in the regular season, we do not trust them as much from a moneyline perspective.
Instead, for the second consecutive day, we are going with a play on the under. The main factor supporting this pick is the weather, as this game will once again be played in the high 40s/low 50s, and the elements clearly impacted last night’s game. Houston has scored five or more runs in ten of their 13 postseason games, but it is much easier to score runs in the heat of Texas or their climate-controlled stadium when the roof is closed.
One school of thought is since each team has gone to their bullpen so frequently over the first three games, the advantage will soon shift to the hitters. We will worry about that fact in Game 5. But for tonight, the raw and damp elements will limit each team’s power potential. The under is 3-0-1 in Houston’s last four games and is 9-3-1 in the previous 13 meetings between these teams. The under is a contrarian play given the public’s perception of what bullpen games mean for both teams tonight, but we always prefer to be contrarian when we can.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.