Best Bets for the American League Division Series (2020)

The American League Division Series has earned its name this year, as two matchups between divisional opponents are on tap. Both series will be the first-ever postseason meetings between the teams. Seeing as the Yankees and Rays as well as the Astros and Athletics have played ten games apiece against each other this year, bettors have a decent sample size for making predictions on these playoff series. Can the Yankees and Astros overcome their poor head-to-head records against their rivals and win when it counts? Or will the Rays and Athletics continue the dominance of their divisional foes and advance to the ALCS?

Here are our picks for who will win each American League Division Series. (odds courtesy of DraftKings)

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Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics

Odds: Astros +100/Athletics -121

The Houston Astros have appeared in each of the last three American League Championship Series, winning two of them. Meanwhile, the Oakland Athletics are looking for their first ALCS appearance since 2006. Oakland won the season series 7-to-3 and were seven games better than Houston in the regular season.

Bettors should be reminded that this year’s best-of-five format is different for a couple of reasons. The obvious one is that no one will have a home-field advantage given that all of the games will be played in Dodger Stadium. In addition, with no need for travel, the five games will be played out over five consecutive days. Interestingly enough, the Astros and A’s played a five-game series from September 7-10 in Oakland with the A’s winning four of the five games.

In theory, the fact that the series will be played over five consecutive days would seem to favor the team with the deeper pitching staff, as the tighter schedule limits starting pitchers’ opportunities to start multiple games. Who has the deeper rotation is an interesting question in this series. Though Houston will be without their top-of-the-rotation ace in Justin Verlander, Astros starters combined for a 4.26 team ERA that ranked 13th in the majors. By contrast, Oakland had just one starter with a sub-4.00 ERA and their staff collectively had a 4.49 ERA that ranked 16th in the majors. However, where Oakland unquestionably has the advantage is in the bullpen where their relievers had a league-best 2.72 ERA. Houston’s bullpen ranked 15th with a 4.39 ERA.

One could look at the season series and crunch the numbers all they want, but perhaps the most important factor in this series is experience. The Astros have made the World Series two of the last three years, so their players are used to the big stage. In addition, they seem to be thriving in their newfound “underdog” role and are relishing the “world against us” mentality. Houston making easy work of the Twins is an indication they should not be viewed in a negative light as their 29-31 regular-season record would suggest. The loss of third baseman Matt Chapman will finally catch up with the A’s, and the “villains” of the postseason will advance once again.

PICK: Houston Astros +100

New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Odds: Yankees -148/Rays +120

The Tampa Bay Rays dominated the New York Yankees in the regular season, winning eight of the ten games and finishing seven games better than them in the standings. However, it is the No. 5 seed Yankees that are big favorites of the No. 1 seed Rays. The biggest reason is the fact that DJ Lemahieu, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton missed a combined 16 games against the Rays this season. The Yankees were an oft-injured team that rarely had their full complement of players. However, they are full strength now and looked impressive in bludgeoning the Indians pitching staff through their two-game series. The Yankees became the fourth team ever two score at least 20 runs in their first to playoff games, and all of the previous three to accomplish the feat made it to the World Series.

As impressive as the Yankees bats looked in the first round, the Rays were arguably the most impressive team overall in the first round. They beat the Blue Jays by a combined 11-3 in their two games and were never seriously threatened in either. In addition, they have a clear advantage over the Yankees in their bullpen as New York’s usually rock-solid pen suddenly has a number of holes. Manager Aaron Boone seems to want nothing to do with pitching Adam Ottavino and is thus left with a trio of Chad Green, Zack Britton, and Aroldis Chapman that he trusts. That is not going it done in a five-game in five days series, and more relievers will have to step up.

All that being said, the Yankees still feel like the right side for two big reasons: their power pitching at the top of the rotation and the relentlessness of their lineup. While the Rays have the postseason’s best trio of pitchers in Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Charlie Morton, they are still not equal to the seasoned Gerrit Cole and postseason veteran Masahiro Tanaka. Before a rain delay interrupted Tanaka’s last start against the Indians, he had been 5-3 with a 1.76 ERA in his eight prior career postseason starts. Thus, they have the horses to match the Rays pitching and a lineup that is absolutely mashing right now.

The last time these two teams met, Rays manager Kevin Cash left us with this soundbite. This series will be fun.

PICK: New York Yankees -148

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